Climate change: The planet is headed for a “catastrophic increase” of 2.7 degrees because we do not cut emissions

The Emissions Gap Report, published on Tuesday, shows that each country’s efforts to reduce national emissions would only lead to an additional 7.5% reduction in annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2030, compared to commitments. previous.

This is not enough. According to the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), the world needs a 55% reduction in such emissions to limit global temperature rise to below 1.5°C, the maximum defined by scientists as the least risky scenario for our planet and the future of humanity.

“With less than a week to go until the COP26 (Climate Conference) in Glasgow, we are still headed for climate catastrophe,” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres told a news conference.

“As the title of this year’s report says: The heat is on. And as the contents of the report show, the leadership we need is non-existent. It is a long way from existing,” he warned.

The world must get to work

The report concludes that net-zero emissions promises, if fully realized, could go a long way and reduce the projected global temperature rise to 2.2 degrees Celsius, raising hopes that new measures can prevent the most catastrophic effects of climate change.

However, so far these promises are “vague” and inconsistent, warns UN Environment.

A total of 49 countries, in addition to the European Union, have promised to achieve a goal of zero net emissions. This encompasses more than half of national greenhouse gas emissions, more than half of global GDP, and a third of the world’s population. There are eleven targets enshrined in law, covering 12% of global emissions.

However, many of the Nationally Determined Contributions postpone action until after 2030, raising doubts that emission neutrality commitments can be achieved, according to the report.

Furthermore, although twelve members of the G20 have promised to reach a goal of zero emissions, there is still ambiguity about how they will meet this goal, says the report.

“The world needs to wake up to the imminent danger we face as a species. Nations must put the policies in place to meet their new commitments and start implementing them in a matter of months,” warns Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP, in the report’s foreword.

“They need to make their emission neutrality pledges more concrete, ensuring that these commitments are included in the Nationally Determined Contributions and that steps are taken to move forward. They must then put in place the policies that support this grand ambition and start implementing them again urgently,” he added.

The countdown has begun

The report is clear: in order to reach the 1.5°C target, the world needs to cut greenhouse gas emissions by almost half in the next eight years. This means removing an additional 28 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent from annual _emissions on top of what is promised in the updated Nationally Determined Contributions and other commitments by 2030.

According to the agency, post-pandemic emissions, after initially declining, have recovered and atmospheric concentrations of CO ₂ are now increasing; the highest in the last two million years.

“The emissions gap is the result of a leadership gap, but leaders can still make this a watershed moment toward a greener future rather than a tipping point toward climate catastrophe. The age of half measures and empty promises must end,” urged UN chief António Guterres.

a missed opportunity

Experts note that countries had an opportunity to use fiscal bailout and recovery spending from COVID-19 to stimulate economies while fostering a low-carbon shift, but “it has been missed in the most countries so far.

Only a small number of high-income economies account for the majority of green spending, and developing countries and emerging markets risk being left behind.

COVID-19 spending has been much lower in low-income economies ($60 per person) than in advanced economies ($11,800 per person). The report warns that gaps in financing are likely to exacerbate gaps in vulnerable nations in terms of climate resilience and mitigation measures.

“As world leaders prepare for COP26, this report is yet another thunderous wake-up call. How many more do we need?… Scientists have the facts clear. Now leaders must be just as clear in their actions. They must come to Glasgow with ambitious plans, with deadlines and well-prepared work to achieve net-zero emissions,” Guterres added.

Methane in the spotlight

The 2021 Emissions Gap Report also looks at the potential of reducing methane gas emissions from the fossil fuel, waste and agriculture sectors to slow warming in the short term.

The experts explain that the reduction of methane could limit the increase in temperature more quickly than that of carbon dioxide. This gas, the second largest contributor to global warming, has a warming potential of more than 80 times that of carbon dioxide over a 20-year time horizon; In addition, its life in the atmosphere is shorter than that of carbon dioxide: only twelve years, compared to the hundreds that CO can last₂ .

The report indicates that low-cost or no-cost technical measures available could reduce anthropogenic methane emissions by approximately 20% per year, and with broader structural and behavioral measures, by approximately 45%.

Source: United Nations