The rise of the sea will reach 1.1 meters in Spain at the end of the century in the worst scenario

The coasts of the Canary Islands and parts of the Mediterranean are the areas that will be most affected in Spain by rising sea levels. Mean water level increases around the world have been documented in a recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on oceans and cryosphere. In Spain, the rise of the sea would reach up to 1.1 meters by the end of the century and will have a special impact on low-lying areas, beaches and river deltas.

“The projections basically say that the sea level, which has been rising in Spain, as we have been observing along the coast, is going to accelerate considerably between now and the end of the century. These are projections that indicate that by the end of the century, in the worst-case scenario, the rise would be 1.1 meters.” This was indicated by Íñigo Losada, professor of Hydraulic Engineering at the Higher Technical School of Civil Engineers, Channels and Ports of the University of Cantabria. The statement was made at an event organized by the Ministry for the Ecological Transition.

Although the Canary Islands and the Mediterranean areas would be the most affected areas, sea level rise is expected to be “widespread along the coast,” added this expert, one of the 104 international experts who has participated in the IPCC special report.

On the Peninsula

The coasts of the Canary Islands and Mediterranean areas are the ones that will be most affected in Spain

The affected areas will be low-lying territories, beaches, river deltas and island areas. “This will be a problem that we will have to face,” says Javier Arístegui, professor of Ecology and director of the Marine Technology Service (SITMA) of the University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, also a participant in the IPCC report.

“Whatever we do, sea level will continue to rise but it can rise more or less depending on emissions policies,” said this specialist.

“There are beaches that will disappear because there is no way to do actions, such as the retraction of the coastline, but flexible solutions can be adopted, such as the use of (artificial) reefs to avoid coastal degradation. But you have to study every ecosystem, every beach, every stretch of coast, there is no valid solution for all areas,” adds Arístegui.

Implications of the hikes

Íñigo Losada added that the projected increases have important implications on the coast, both in episodes of flooding and erosion, as well as impacts on “infrastructures” of the coast, which “are designed for conditions that are changing and that will change even more,” he explained.

Losada has warned (recalling the IPCC report) that an increase in the frequency of “extreme and temporary events on the coast” is also expected.

In this sense, he cited the storms of previous years in the Cantabrian Sea, where the global average rise in sea level was joined by important astronomical tides and meteorological tides that have given rise “to the damage we have experienced”.

Inigo Losada

“The ascent will accelerate until the end of the century”

Implications on the coasts

The IPCC report notes that extreme events that currently have a recurrence of once every 100 years could occur “practically annually in 2030-2035”, depending on the emissions scenario, which would require total reconfiguration of the coast as it is now.

In that sense, he recalled that the beaches not only have a tourist use, but are the first elements of protection of the coast.

The situation provoked will require a “transformation” that will probably “force” to understand that the coast must be managed in a “very different” way than has been done so far.

Is the Ebro Delta going to disappear?

Is the Ebro delta going to disappear, now in sharp retreat on the island of Buda?, they asked Losada. The professor recalled that in this area also decisively influences the lack of sediments (from the Ebro River) and the sinking of the Delta (subsidence). “This is a low zone; and, indeed, if there is any risk in Spain, it occurs in low-lying, deltaic areas and at the mouths,” he said.

Specific situation

In the case of the Delta, the retreat contributes to the lack of sediments and their subsidence by compaction

“But there is an important additional process here: it is sinking, which causes the difference between ground level and sea level to increase. Let’s not forget that what the Delta needs are sediments. And these will be the ones who will guarantee, if we get them, that the coast is much more resilient in the face of the changes that are going to take place.”

Solutions & Capabilities

This expert said that there are capacities to develop adaptation policies that allow the application of solutions that go beyond the mere construction of coastal defense infrastructures.

For example, among adaptation solutions, he advocated conserving marshes and estuaries, and implementing measures in the field of sediment management policies or early warning.

He especially insisted that natural coastal ecosystems must be conserved, not only because of their high ecological value but also because of the coastal protection services it provides.

Urban beaches

In the case of the defense of the coast, a problem comes from urban beaches, those that have behind them constructions, and where the capacity to act “is limited”. “Our risk increases in the areas where we have occupied the coast,” he warned.

Damages and economic costs

The Government prepares a risk assessment on the coast

“Protect or regenerate them”

In that case, he points out, “the only solution” is to protect or regenerate them; that is, to reoccupy that territory that they are losing due to the rise in sea level, in such a way that they maintain their functionality.

“It is clear that we need a transformation and that transformation will probably force us to understand that our coast must be managed in a very different way than we have done so far,” he added.

Previous report in collaboration with the Autonomous Communities

The Ministry for the Ecological Transition prepares a strategy for adaptation to climate change on the coast

Adaptation to the coast: report

The Ministry for the Ecological Transition is preparing to develop a strategy for adaptation to climate change on the coast, for which it is carrying out a risk assessment report with information from the autonomous communities. This document will lay the foundations of the Spanish strategy of adaptation on the coast.

This preliminary study will calculate the number of people affected, the economic damage to both the infrastructures (operations …) and the ecosystems involved.

In the aforementioned strategy, the solutions will be promoted “but with special emphasis on the conservation and restoration of our beaches and dune ecosystems and some important ecosystems, such as the formations of phanerogams that, like posidonia, fulfill a function of protecting the coast”. These plant formations have the virtue of dissipating the energy of these extreme events and thus contribute to providing protective services to the coast.

The professor at the University of Cantabria is confident that this report will be completed in July 2020 and will lay the foundations for applying the Spanish adaptation strategy on the coast.

The Cold Drop

Also asked about the impact of climate change on local phenomena such as the well-known ‘cold drop’, the researcher recalled that the new IPCC report does not specifically analyze this extreme event but fundamentally the rise in sea level, heat waves in the ocean, El Niño, La Niña or tropical cyclones.

He also explained that previous studies already show that the way in which rainfall will occur in that area will change, and although it may go to similar volumes, the frequency and intensity will be different.

“These events are going to be more frequent and this is going to be a problem for which we must adapt the riverbeds,” he said.

Emergency

Javier Arístegui, the second of the two Spanish scientists who has participated in the preparation of this special report of the IPCC, has highlighted the risks for Spain of the current climate emergency, since Spain is a country surrounded by coasts, both in the Peninsula and in its island territories, and therefore, must face that it is exposed to the rise in sea level that “will continue to rise” regardless of the actions that are taken they undertake.

“We can get it to go up more or go up less, depending on what we do. We must take solutions adapted to the coastal communities themselves, to biodiversity and solutions not in 100 years, but now,” he encouraged.

Arístegui, professor of Ecology and director of the Marine Technology Service (SITMA) at the University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria values the report because it will allow you to use your forecasts to adopt the relevant solutions, which will depend on each area. For example, some open beaches may be reformed, but other coastal areas will “disappear” because there will be no way to do retraction tasks while in others reefs or regeneration of coastal communities can be used to avoid coastal degradation.

Source: The Vanguard