The rapid rebound in CO ₂ emissions worries climate experts

The rapid uptick in _CO2 emissions during de-escalation has set off alarm bells among climate scientists. According to a report published in Nature Climate Change, global emissions, at this point of the year, are only 5% lower than on the same dates in 2019, after having fallen by up to 25% at the critical moment of the coronavirus pandemic and 17% in the month of April.

Overall, the drop in emissions since January has been 8.6%, even higher than the annual decline of 7.6% recommended by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Experts predict, however, that by the end of the year the cut in emissions will be between 4% and 7%, taking into account the gradual recovery of economic activity.

“Everything is happening very fast,” study author Corinne Le Quéré, a professor of climate change at the University of East Anglia, told the Guardian. “Very few countries still have a strict lockdown. And, while we expected a rebound in emissions, the fact that it happened in such an accelerated way has been a big surprise.”

The main contributor to the increase in _CO2 emissions is the increase in road traffic, apparently due to a greater use of private vehicles compared to the fall in public transport. Interestingly, however, nitrogen dioxide pollution levels (which fell by as much as half in many European cities) have not rebounded in the same proportion, and air remains cleaner in large cities than before the pandemic.

“Transport emissions were always going to rise again, but government responses have not been quick enough to bring about a change in habits among drivers,” warns Corinne Le Quéré. “It would be terrible if we just get back to normal. It would be a disaster.”

GREEN RECOVERY PLANS

The slowness of central governments and the resistance to promoting green recovery plans contrasts, however, with the action at the local level and with the impulse of large cities (Milan, Paris, London, New York, Barcelona) to interventions of “tactical urbanism” and the promotion of new mobility. The C40 group of cities has signed a declaration of principles for “a healthy, equitable and sustainable recovery”.

“If people start using private vehicles instead of public transport for health reasons, we may even reach a higher emissions scenario than they did before the pandemic,” warns Bob Ward of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change Research. “All economic recovery packages should be aimed at encouraging job creation and investments in a low-carbon economy, rather than locking us back into the high-carbon economy.”

“Government actions and post-crisis economic incentives are likely to have an influence on emissions in the coming decades,” warns the study published in Nature Climate Change based on data from 69 countries. The authors urge governments to take advantage of de-escalation to more accurately determine the point-in-time contribution of key sectors to _CO2 emissions (energy, industry, transport, construction and aviation) and take advantage of the “window of opportunity” for a change of course in the coming months.

Source: El Mundo