The fight against climate change reaches its tipping point: Time is running out to avoid catastrophic warming

The landmark United in Science 2021* report states that “there is no sign that we will be greener again” since, after a temporary bump in 2020 due to COVID-19, carbon dioxide emissions are accelerating rapidly, thus moving away from the targets set by the Paris Agreement, the great international treaty to prevent global warming of the planet above 2 degrees Celsius.

“We have reached a tipping point on the need for climate action. The alteration of our climate and our planet is already worse than we thought, and it is advancing faster than expected,” the UN Secretary-General said in a video message.

“This report shows how far we are from the road,” António Guterres added.

A world in danger

According to scientists, rising global temperatures are already causing devastating extreme weather events in all regions of the world, with an increasing impact on economies and societies. For example, billions of hours of work have been lost due to excessive heat.

“We now have five times more weather disasters recorded than in 1970 and they are seven times more costly. Even the most developed countries have become vulnerable,” the UN chief said.

Guterres cited how Hurricane Ida recently cut off power to more than a million people in New Orleans, and how New York City was paralyzed by unprecedented rains that killed at least 50 people in the region.

“These events would have been impossible without man-made climate change. Costly fires, floods and extreme weather events are on the rise everywhere. These changes are just the beginning of something worse,” he warned.

A bleak future

The report echoes some of the data and warnings from experts over the past year: the global average temperature for the past five years has been one of the highest on record, and it is increasingly likely that, over the next five years, temperatures will temporarily exceed the threshold of a rise above 1.5 degrees in the pre-industrial era.

The picture United in Science paints is bleak: even if ambitious steps are taken to curb greenhouse gas emissions, sea levels will continue to rise and threaten low-lying islands and coastal populations around the world.

This whole issue will be the central theme of the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP26, which will be held in the city of Glasgow (Scotland) between October 31 and November 12, 2021. This pivotal meeting is expected to set the course for climate action for the next decade.

“We’ve really run out of time. We must act now to prevent further irreversible damage. COP26 in November should mark that turning point. By then, we need all countries to commit to achieving net-zero emissions by the middle of this century and to come up with clear and credible long-term strategies to achieve this,” Guterres said.

He also stressed that “we must urgently achieve progress on adaptation and resilience, so that vulnerable communities can manage these growing climate risks (…) I hope that all these issues will be addressed and resolved at COP26. Our future is at stake.”

For his part, Professor Petteri Talas, Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization added that “throughout the pandemic we have heard that we must ‘build back better’ to put humanity on a more sustainable path, and avoid the worst impacts of climate change on society and economies. This report shows that, so far, in 2021, we are not going in the right direction.”

The report also cites the two conclusions of the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):

• the scale of recent changes in the climate system is unprecedented in many thousands of years

• it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land

Notable results

Concentrations of major greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), continued to rise in 2020 and the first half of 2021.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, reducing atmospheric methane in the short term could help deliver on the promises to which 193 states committed in the Paris Agreement. This measure does not replace the need for a strong, rapid and sustained reduction of _CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

Meanwhile, the United Nations Environment Programme warns that five years after the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the emissions gap ( the difference between actual emissions and what science says should be in 2030 ) is bigger than ever.

While the growing number of countries committing to net emissions targets is encouraging, in order for them to remain feasible and credible, these targets must be urgently reflected in short-term policies and significantly more ambitious actions.

A warmer future

The report explains that the planet’s average annual temperature is likely to be at least 1 degree Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels (defined as the average between the years 1850-1900) in each of the next five years and is very likely to be in the range of 0.9 to 1.8 degrees.

There is also a 40% chance that the average temperature in one of the next five years will be at least 1.5 degrees higher than pre-industrial levels. However, the five-year average temperature of 2021-2025 is highly unlikely to exceed that threshold.

The report also warns that high-latitude regions and the Sahel area will likely be wetter in the next five years.

Sea level rise is inevitable

Sea level in the world rose 20 centimeters between 1900 and 2018, and at an accelerated rate between 2006 and 2018.

Even if emissions are reduced to limit warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, the average sea level globally will likely rise between 0.3 and 0.6 m by 2100 and could rise between 0.3 and 3.1 m by 2300.

Adaptation to this rise will be essential, especially on low-lying coasts, small islands, deltas and coastal cities, explains the World Meteorological Organization.

The health of the world is also in danger

The World Health Organization warns that rising temperatures are linked to an increase in heat-related mortality and job deterioration, with an excess of 103 billion hours of work lost worldwide in 2019 compared to those lost in 2000.

In addition, COVID-19 infections and climate risks such as heat waves, wildfires and poor air quality combine to threaten human health around the world, putting vulnerable populations at particular risk.

According to the UN health agency, COVID-19 recovery efforts must be aligned with national strategies on climate change and air quality to reduce the risks of cascading climate hazards and gain health co-benefits.

The United in Science 2021 report is coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), with input from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the World Health Organization (WHO), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Global Carbon Project (GCP), the World Climate Research Programme (WWCP) and the Met Office (UNITED KINGDOM). It presents the latest data and scientific findings related to climate change to inform global policy and action.

Source: UN