COP27 will measure the will to fight climate change in the context of war and inflation

The new United Nations international climate summit, which begins next week in Egypt, will test countries’ resolve to combat global warming, at a time when many of the world’s major players are distracted from this task by other crises, such as war in Europe and runaway inflation.

More than 30,000 delegates, including representatives from some 200 countries, will gather Nov. 6-18 in the spa town of Sharm el-Sheikh to discuss details on how to curb climate change and help those already feeling its effects.

However, as countries grapple with the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rising food and fuel prices, and faltering economic growth, the question arises as to whether they will act quickly and ambiguably enough to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

Cooling relations this year between the world’s top emitters of greenhouse gases, China and the United States, does not bode well, experts say.

A United Nations report released last week showed that most countries are falling behind in their carbon reduction commitments, with global greenhouse gas emissions on track to rise 10.6% by 2030 compared to 2010 levels.

Scientists say emissions must fall 43% by that date to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial temperatures, a threshold above which climate change risks spiraling out of control.

Only 24 of the nearly 200 countries attending COP27 have submitted new or updated emissions reduction plans since last year’s U.N. climate conference in Scotland’s Glasgow, though all had pledged to do so, according to the U.N. climate agency.

Some countries, including Chile, Mexico and Turkey, are expected to unveil new plans during the Egypt conference, but it’s unclear whether any major economies, such as China and India, will be among them.

“The chances of China taking another important step before COP27 are slim,” said Li Shuo, a China climate expert at Greenpeace, who knows the Chinese government’s stance.

Alden Meyer, an international climate policy expert at E3G, said the erosion of diplomatic ties between Washington and Beijing over issues such as Taiwan and the war in Ukraine were a headwind for global climate progress, noting that past collaboration between the two had helped boost climate talks.

“Is it possible to move forward without the United States and China collaborating? Yes, it is, but it’s not easier,” he said.

For its part, the U.S. government has urged U.S. and international oil and gas drillers to increase production to address shortages in global markets, lower consumer prices and offset supply disruptions related to Russia’s war on Ukraine, demonstrating that the energy crisis has changed Joe Biden’s political priorities. A president who campaigned on a promise to quickly end the fossil fuel era.

The U.S. delegation to the U.N. conference is likely to trumpet Biden’s legislative victories on climate change, including passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes billions of dollars in subsidies for wind and solar and electric vehicles.

LOSS AND DAMAGE

The two-week U.N. summit in Egypt follows a year of severe weather disruption around the world and scores of global warming, from devastating floods in Pakistan, South Africa and Nigeria, to heatwaves in the Arctic and across Europe, and unprecedented droughts in the western United States and France.

The talks are likely to address how these and other nations affected by climate change could be compensated by the rich countries believed to have caused it. Other topics will include reforming international financial institutions, such as the World Bank, to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels.

The issue of mobilizing new funds to compensate for climate destruction is contentious, as rich countries, including the United States and members of the European Union, have opposed previous proposals for a “loss and damage” fund for fear of their responsibilities.

U.S. special envoy for climate change John Kerry said last week that the U.S. supports serious dialogue on the issue at COP27, but said the issue is sensitive because of upcoming congressional elections, which could tilt the legislative body toward controlling the opposition Republican Party.

He also noted that the United States is the world’s largest donor of humanitarian aid and will focus on increasing spending on climate adaptation.

This message sounds hollow to some.

“I don’t want to hear the political rhetoric about loss and damage. I don’t want to hear what countries are already doing in terms of disaster aid, because it’s not enough,” said Aminath Shauna, climate minister for the Maldives, a low-lying Indian Ocean island chain facing future flooding from rising sea levels.

The deliberations got a boost with Brazil’s election Sunday of leftist leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, whose team has denounced deforestation in the Amazon and called for an international summit on the fate of the giant American jungle.

The talks could also emphasize natural gas, given its importance to the host continent. Oil-rich African countries argue that they have the right to develop their resources, especially as Europe struggles to find new suppliers to replace Russia.

“African nations are going to denounce the hypocrisy of Europe securing gas deals in the name of energy security, while telling African nations not to develop their resources for grassroots energy,” said Lily Odarno, Africa climate program director at the Clean Air Task Force.

Egypt’s top climate negotiator, Mohamed Nasr, has said the summit’s success will be measured by whether countries come up with a package of deals that keeps alive the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C alive, while ensuring poorer nations receive fair treatment and the support rich countries have promised.

“Climate change is not giving us room to breathe,” Nasr said. “Science tells us we’re not on the right track at anything.”

Source: EuroNews