Dependence on fossil fuels causes disease and food insecurity worldwide

A report in The Lancet warns that climate change is causing serious health impacts around the world. The work highlights that persistent and over-reliance on fossil fuels is rapidly worsening this crisis.

As countries and health systems continue to grapple with the health, social and economic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic, the conflict in Ukraine and a global energy and cost-of-living crisis, climate change continues to escalate. Dependence on fossil fuels is exacerbating the health impacts of these crises, according to the seventh Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change report.

“Our study reveals that we are at a critical juncture. We see how climate change is causing serious health impacts around the world, while persistent global dependence on fossil fuels exacerbates these health harms amid multiple global crises. This keeps households vulnerable to volatile fossil fuel markets, exposed to energy poverty and dangerous levels of air pollution,” said Marina Romanello, executive director of the report at University College London.

The Lancet Countdown represents the work of 99 experts from 51 institutions, including the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and is led by University College London. It is released ahead of the 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27), and features 43 indicators including new and improved metrics monitoring the impact of extreme temperatures on food insecurity, household air pollution, and the fossil fuel industry’s fitness for a healthy future.

“Despite the challenges, there is clear evidence that immediate action could save the lives of millions of people, with a rapid shift towards clean energy and energy efficiency. Accelerated climate action would bring cascading benefits, with health, food and energy systems becoming more resilient. With a world in turmoil, governments and businesses have the opportunity to put health at the heart of an aligned response to these co-occurring crises, and deliver a healthy and secure future for all,” adds Romanello.

Amplifying the health impacts of multiple crises

The work highlights that persistent over-reliance on fossil fuels is rapidly worsening climate change, causing dangerous health impacts around the world. The data shows that no country is safe. Climate change increases the likelihood and severity of extreme weather events such as heat waves, heavy rainfall, wildfires, storms and droughts, which cost hundreds of thousands of lives each year worldwide.

In this sense, forest fires caused devastation in Canada, the United States, Greece, Algeria, Italy, Spain and Turkey, and record temperatures were recorded in Australia, Canada, India or the United Kingdom.

“Health systems are the first line of defense to address the physical and mental health impacts of extreme weather events and other impacts of a changing climate. But health systems are struggling to cope with the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions and other challenges, putting lives at risk, today and in the future,” says Kristie Ebi, leader of the report’s working group on adaptation, planning and resilience for health and a professor at the Center for Global Health and Environment at the University of Washington.

Data from this year’s report suggests that, in the short term, climate change is affecting all pillars of food security. Rising temperatures and extreme weather events directly threaten crop yields by shortening the growing season for crops by 9.3 days for maize, 1.7 days for rice and 6 days for winter and spring wheat.

Extreme heat was associated with 98 million more people reporting moderate to severe food insecurity in 103 countries in 2020, compared to previous years between 1981 and 2010. On average, 29 percent more of the world’s land area was affected by extreme drought annually between 2012-2021 than between 1951-1960, putting people at risk of water and food insecurity.

“Climate change is already having a negative impact on food security, with worrying implications for malnutrition and undernutrition. Further increases in temperature, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and carbon dioxide concentrations will put even more pressure on the availability of and access to nutritious food, especially for the most vulnerable,” says Elizabeth Robinson, co-author of the paper and director of the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics.

Robinson adds that “this is especially concerning given that food supply chains globally have once again emerged this year as highly vulnerable to shocks, manifested in rapidly rising food prices and the consequent rise in food insecurity.”

Exposure to extreme heat directly affects health: it exacerbates cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, adverse pregnancy outcomes, worsening sleep patterns, poor mental health, and increased injury-related deaths. It also affects health indirectly by limiting people’s ability to work and exercise.

Heat-related deaths increased by 68% between 2017-2021, compared to 2000-2004; while human exposure to very high or extremely high fire hazard days increased in 61% of countries from 2001-2004 to 2018-2021.

Exposure to heat resulted in the loss of 470 billion potential working hours worldwide in 2021, with income losses equivalent to substantial proportions of countries’ GDP, disproportionately affecting low- and middle-income countries (5.6% in low- and middle-income countries) and exacerbating the impact of the cost-of-living crisis.

Climate change is also affecting the spread of infectious diseases. The length of adequate time for malaria transmission increased by 32.1% in the highlands of the Americas, and by 14.9% in Africa in 2012-2021, compared to 1951-1960.

The influence of climate on the risk of dengue transmission increased by 12% globally in the same period. Combined with the COVID-19 pandemic, the rise of infectious diseases due to climate change has led to diagnostic errors, pressure on health systems and difficulties in managing simultaneous disease outbreaks.

Governments and companies prioritize fossil fuels

New and updated indicators reveal that governments and companies continue to prioritize the extraction and burning of fossil fuels, despite the serious and aggravated damage that climate change causes to health.

The carbon intensity of the global energy system (the largest contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions) has been reduced by less than 1% from 1992 levels, when the UNFCCC was adopted in which countries agreed to prevent dangerous man-made climate change, and its negative effects on human health.

At the current rate of change, the total decarbonisation of the energy system would take 150 years, a far cry from the demands to keep global warming at 1.5°C, as set out in the Paris Agreement.

Governments continue to encourage fossil fuel production and consumption, as 69 of the 86 governments analysed in this report effectively subsidize fossil fuels, totalling a net $400 billion in 2019 (taking into account the contribution of both carbon pricing instruments and fossil fuel subsidies).

These subsidies exceeded 10% of national health expenditure in 31 of the countries and exceeded 100% in five countries. At the same time, governments have so far failed to provide less than $100 billion a year to help climate action in lower-income countries, which it pledged to achieve by 2020 in the Copenhagen Accord, jeopardizing a just transition to a healthy future.

Regardless of their climate claims and commitments, the current strategies of 15 of the largest oil and gas companies would lead to their greenhouse gas production exceeding their share of emissions compatible with 1.5°C of warming by 37% in 2030, and by 103% in 2040.

With many companies posting record profits this year, further delaying their investments for a zero-carbon energy transition threatens to permanently pull the world away from meeting the commitments set out in the Paris Agreement.

Meanwhile, delays in adoption and uneven access to clean energy have left households dependent on dirty fuel use, exposed to energy poverty and dangerous levels of indoor air pollution. Biomass (such as fuelwood or manure) will contribute up to 31% of the energy consumed in the household sector worldwide in 2020, rising to 96% in low- and middle-income countries.

Household concentrations of hazardous particulate air pollution (PM2.5) exceed the WHO recommendation by 30 times in 2020 in the 62 countries assessed, exposing families to dangerous levels of air pollution.

According to the work, global crises cannot be addressed in isolation, but a unified and cohesive approach is needed to create equitable solutions for all. Failure to do so would worsen overall health outcomes. Less than a third of the $3.1 trillion spent on responding to the COVID-19 pandemic will reduce greenhouse gas emissions or air pollution.

Now, the report says, “short-sighted responses to the energy crisis and the cost-of-living crisis threaten to exacerbate climate change, as many governments and businesses are turning to coal, further threatening people’s health and survival.”

“The current strategies of many governments and companies will lock the world into a fatally warmer future, tying us to the use of fossil fuels, which are rapidly closing the prospects for a livable world. This is the result of a profound failure to recognise the need for an urgent reprioritisation of finance to ensure a healthy, affordable and zero-carbon future,” said Professor Paul Ekins, head of the Lancet working group on economics and finance and professor of resource and environment policy at Bartlett School at University College London.

There are still signs of hope

A health-focused response to the current energy, cost-of-living and climate crisis would enable energy companies to rapidly switch to clean fuels and countries to rapidly reach net greenhouse gas emissions, unlocking a future of sustainable development, healthy environments and health equity, while improving energy security and offering a pathway to economic recovery.

Improvements in air quality would help prevent deaths resulting from exposure to particulate air pollution derived from fossil fuels, of which 1.3 million occurred in 2020 alone.

Accelerating the transition to more balanced, plant-based diets would not only reduce 55% of agricultural sector emissions from red meat and milk production, but also prevent up to 11.5 million diet-related deaths annually and reduce the risk of zoonotic diseases.

Today, only 27% of urban centers are classified as moderately green or higher, and people still rely on air conditioning for cooling, which in 2020 was responsible for 900 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions, and 24,000 deaths from PM2.5 exposure.

A health-first urban redesign can provide more green space that reduces urban heat, improves air quality, and benefits physical and mental health.

Data from this year’s report shows some signs of hope and movement toward action. Although total clean energy generation remains insufficient, it reached record levels in 2020, with zero-carbon sources accounting for 80% of investment in electricity generation methods in 2021.

For the first time, direct and indirect employment in renewables surpassed direct employment in the fossil fuel extraction industry, which registered 10.5 million employees (10% less than in 2019), reaffirming that renewables could support job security, now and in the future, the document says.

Source: Sinc