China redoubles its commitments against climate change

China also does not aspire to be a lifeline for fossil fuels. Its president, Xi Jinping, announced by surprise on Tuesday that it will increase its climate commitments and China will reach carbon neutrality before 2060, implying that emissions will not exceed the _CO2 absorbed by sinks (for example, forests). The Asian country thus puts in the spotlight the fossil fuels that emit the gases that overheat the planet. Although there is still a lack of concreteness and there is uncertainty about how it will disengage from these fuels, the announcement is considered vital because it is the first time that the country has set a date to decarbonize and because it is the first global emitter (it is responsible for about a quarter of all greenhouse gases in the world).

2060 is the long-term goal. In the short, Xi Jinping announced that the emissions cut plan he had presented to the UN when the Paris Agreement was closed in 2015 will be increased. Then China pledged that its carbon dioxide emissions would reach their peak by 2030 and from there they would fall. It is hoped that this goal can be advanced; Xi Jinping said the new goal is to achieve that peak “before 2030,” though he did not specify more.

The Paris Agreement went ahead five years ago thanks largely to the consensus between China, the US and Europe. But the arrival of Donald Trump in 2016 to the White House left that alliance lame. Brussels has tried to continue to push the fight against warming. He has promised to reach climate neutrality by 2050 and intends to present to the UN a more ambitious plan in the coming months, which will force the EU to cut its gases by 55% by 2030, 15 points more than it was set five years ago.

The objective of the Paris Agreement is that the increase in temperature does not exceed two degrees compared to pre-industrial levels and, as far as possible, remains below 1.5. And to achieve this, all countries must present plans to cut emissions. The problem is that those presented are no longer enough to achieve the goal of the two degrees, so they had to be revised upwards this year.

“To date, only 14 countries have put their new national contribution on the table,” explains Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, former Peruvian Environment Minister and WWF climate negotiation expert. “It’s quite little compared to what was expected,” he adds. But there is another group of states that have announced their intention to present tougher plans. They are a hundred, represent about 40% of global emissions and among them are already the EU and China, says Ranping Song, a specialist at the World Resources Institute.

China’s announcement, combined with the EU’s targets, “should increase pressure on other countries to raise their short-term, 2030, and long-term targets,” said Wai-Shin Chan, head of HSBC Bank’s Climate Change Centre. “We are confident in this positive competition that is being established,” adds Maria Neira, Head of Public Health and Environment at WHO. “It’s a signal to others and hopefully the level of ambition will increase and the speed too,” adds this WHO representative. Everyone is now looking at the United States, because the arrival of Joe Biden to the White House would mean the return of that country to the international fight against warming, as the Democrats have promised.

All the experts consulted agree that the key to Xi Jinping’s announcement will be in the details. “China now needs to chart a credible path to reach its goal,” says Ranping Song. To reach that neutrality in 2060, the country will require profound reforms of its economy and its energy system, still very dependent on fossil fuels and, especially, on coal, which still accounts for 57.5% of its energy consumption. “We have to see how it will gradually get out of coal,” says Pulgar-Vidal. During the last months, and after the economic downturn caused by covid, the Chinese government has authorized the construction of new coal plants.

Deliberations on the 14th Five-Year Plan, which will lead the Chinese economy between 2021 and 2025, will be decisive. The leaders of the Communist Party are scheduled to meet, behind closed doors, next month to discuss the main lines of that document that will be finalized in the spring.

“Will we see increased investment in low-carbon industries as part of the post-covid economic recovery? When can China leave coal behind, and will its domestic renewables sector be able to maintain its momentum?” asks Li Yan, director of Greenpeace in China. “A low-carbon transition is required across the economy, including transportation, manufacturing, agriculture and consumption,” Li Yan warns. In short, “a green revolution” like the one Xi Jinping said on Tuesday that humanity needs.

THE IMPORTANCE OF WORDS AND DETAILS

The promise launched by Xi Jinping at the UN was to achieve “carbon neutrality by 2060.” Carbon neutrality means the zero balance between the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere and that absorbed through so-called sinks, such as forests or _CO2 capture and storage techniques. Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas, but not the only one. “The terms need to be further clarified to fully understand China’s intent,” said Ranping Song of the World Resources Institute. The other term commonly used is “climate neutrality,” which includes other greenhouse gases, such as methane. Therefore, Song explains, China must clarify its goals and objectives and whether it refers only to carbon dioxide or all greenhouse gases. “China must also improve its transparency and reporting mechanisms,” adds Manuel Pulgar-Vidal of WWF, so that the international community can verify its promises and progress.

Source: The Country