Climate change faster than predicted

Storms in the Southern Hemisphere have already reached levels of intensity that were expected to occur in 2080.

According to a new study by Israel’s Weizman Institute of Science published on 05/31/2022, it considers that the climate is changing faster than expected. Storms in the Southern Hemisphere have already reached levels of intensity that were expected to occur in 2080.

About 30 massive, intricate computer networks serve scientists who are at the forefront of climate change research. Each network runs a software program comprised of millions of lines of code. These programs are computer models that combine the myriads of physical, chemical and biological phenomena, which together form the climate of our planet. The models calculate the state of the atmosphere, oceans, land and ice, capturing past and present climate variability and using the information to predict future climate change.

These results are analyzed by leading research institutes in the world, including the Weitzman Institute of Science, and then incorporated into the assessment report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Policymakers rely on the IPCC to develop strategies to adapt and mitigate climate change, one of the greatest crises of our generation.

A new study recently published in Natural Climate Change is sure to take note from the IPCC and other environmental bodies. A team of scientists led by Dr. Reichemki of the Weitzman Institute of Science’s Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences revealed a considerable intensification of winter storms in the Southern Hemisphere. The study, conducted in cooperation with Dr. Yiming of Princeton University and Dr. Janni Yural of MIT, is sure to make a splash in the climate conversation. Until now, climate models predicted an intensification of human-caused winter storms only by the end of this century. In the new study, Chemke and his team compared climate model simulations with current storm observations. Its discovery was grim, it became clear that the intensification of storms over the past few decades has already reached levels projected for 2080.

Chemke explains that a winter storm is a weather phenomenon that lasts only a few days. It indicates individually, that each storm does not have too much climatic weight. However, the long-term effect of winter storms becomes evident when assessing information accumulated over long periods of time. Cumulatively, these storms have a significant impact, affecting heat transfer, humidity and momentum within the atmosphere, which consequently affects the various climatic zones of the earth. An example of this is the role storms play in regulating temperature at the earth’s poles. Winter storms are responsible for most of the heat transfer from tropical regions to the poles. Without their input, the average temperature at the poles would be approximately 30º lower. In addition, the collective intensification of these storms poses a real and significant threat to societies in the Global South for decades to come.

In his lab, at the Wiezman Institute of Science, Chemke investigates the physical mechanisms underlying large-scale climate change by trying to understand whether these changes in weather patterns were caused by external factors (such as human activity) or whether they have been the result of internal fluctuations in the global climate system. He analyzed climate models that simulated storm intensification patterns under the isolated influence of internal climate causes, with no external impact.

He showed that during the last 20 years storms have intensified more rapidly, which can be explained only by internal climate behavior.

In addition, the research uncovered the physical process underlying the intensification of storms. An analysis of the rate of storm growth showed that changes in atmospheric jet streams over the past few decades have caused these escalations, and that current climate models are not in a position to accurately reflect these changes.

The study by Chemke and colleagues has two immediate and considerable consequences. First, it shows that not only are climate projections for the coming decades more severe than previous assessments, but it also suggests that human activity could have a greater impact than estimated in the Southern Hemisphere. This means that swift and decisive intervention is required in order to stop climate damage in this region. Second, it is necessary to correct the risk of climate models, so that they can provide a more accurate climate projection in the future.

Could climate models be incorrectly predicting other important phenomena? The models are doing a very good job of forecasting almost all parameters, Chemke said. A parameter has been discovered for which the sensitivity of the models needs to be adjusted. Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea ice, and summer storm patterns, for example, are being accurately simulated. It is believed that climate scientists will now be able to estimate more accurately the extent of climate damage; Damages that will only be mitigated if humanity intervenes and takes responsibility for the future of the planet.

Source: El Financiero