IEA analysis recommends greater efforts to reach 2050 climate goals

Despite encouraging signs of progress in a number of sectors, greater efforts are needed to put the world on track to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Tracking Clean Energy Progress (TCEP) analysis of global progress in clean energy technologies.

The IEA’s Tracking Clean Energy Progress update finds that only electric vehicles and lighting are moving fast enough in 2021.

The TCEP assessment analyses 55 components of the energy system (sectors, technologies, infrastructure and cross-cutting CO2 mitigation strategies) and assesses their progress in 2021 to reach key medium-term milestones by the end of this decade, which are set on the IEA’s path to net-zero emissions by 2050.

2022, record year for renewable energies

Recent technological developments and policy actions suggest that momentum is accelerating in some important regions and sectors. Initial estimates suggest that 2022 will be a record year for renewable electricity capacity additions, with an increase of around 340 GW, roughly equal to all of Japan’s installed power capacity. China accounts for about half of those additions.

Another all-time record for electric vehicle sales is also expected to be recorded this year, bringing them to 13% of total light-duty vehicle sales globally. Pipelines for both hydrogen projects and carbon capture and storage facilities continue to expand, with record sales of heat pumps recorded last year.

A pilot project last year used hydrogen to produce fully fossil-free steel and the first commercial production of lithium-free sodium-ion batteries is scheduled to begin next year.

A turning point

On the political front, the landmark U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, enacted in August, provides $370 billion in investments in energy security and climate change, giving a boost to a wide variety of clean energy technologies, from solar, wind and electric vehicles to carbon and hydrogen capture. Meanwhile, with its REPowerEU Plan, the European Union is raising its energy efficiency and renewable energy targets and dedicating significant resources to achieving them.

According to the IEA report, governments are also spending more on clean energy research and development, which could reach $35 billion by 2022, while venture capital investments in clean energy startups hit an all-time high in 2021.

Governments are supporting major R+D and demonstration projects through measures such as the US Bipartisan Infrastructure Act, the EU Innovation Fund, Japan’s Green Innovation Fund, and China’s 14th Five-Year Plan, with an increasing focus on heavy industry, hydrogen, and carbon capture.

Areas on track

Despite these positive signs, this year’s TCEP found that only two components (electric vehicles and lighting) were fully on track for their 2030 milestones in the IEA’s Net Zero Scenario by 2050. Sales of electric vehicles doubled worldwide last year to account for nearly 9% of the car market, while more than 50% of the global lighting market now uses LED technology.

Of the remaining follow-up areas, 30 were rated as ‘more efforts needed’ and 23 were ‘not on track’. Areas that are not on track include improving the energy efficiency of building designs, developing clean and efficient district heating, phasing out coal-fired power generation, eliminating methane burning, shifting aviation and shipping to cleaner fuels, and making cement production, chemicals and steel be cleaner.

Innovation Tracker

Along with TCEP, the IEA is also launching an expanded clean energy innovation tracker, which includes an update to the ‘Clean Technology Guide’, as well as a new publicly available global database of clean energy demonstration projects that provides project-by-project information, including location, sector, technology, technology readiness, status, financing and schedule of operations. The database responds to the need to monitor how public and private support for demonstration projects translates into field projects.

The report concludes that clean energy transitions will require a diversity of technologies and fuels in all parts of the energy system, requiring comprehensive and ambitious policy packages that adequately support transitions across sectors. As TCEP’s analysis shows, this current decade is a critical time to lay a solid foundation for achieving longer-term goals.

Source: Smart Grids Info