COP 27: seven achievements, eight problems and one major disappointment

The climate summit in Egypt, COP 27, has come to an end, a summit distracted by symptoms and unable to address causes and solutions. These are their achievements and their problems.

Contrary to what the title of this article may suggest, the achievements of this 27th conference of the parties, of this 27th climate summit, were not balanced with failures. The global assessment of COP27 held in Sharm el Sheikh (Egypt) is disappointing. The final proposal for decisions has been made public and, despite the administrative style and not always direct and clear, words such as “concern” and “objectives are not achieved” can be read in several of the points.

In a simple and direct closing speech, the Dutch Frans Timmermans, first vice-president of the European Commission, after recalling that friends are only friends if they can say things that are not pleasant to hear, urged to continue working once seen the little progress. He has set his sights on the next COP, as he does every year.

The distance between where we are and where we should be is greater than ever

The reactions have not been long in coming. The gap between where we need to be and where we are in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, human rights and geopolitical balances is greater than ever. When we most need action and commitments to tackle the climate crisis, we hear again promises and future plans, goals without concrete agendas and pressures for hardly anything to change and yet to change as little as necessary as the impression that the more than 40,000 participants at COP27 did not meet in Egypt at all.

It has resulted in a climate summit distracted with symptoms and unable to address causes and solutions, as most of its predecessors were. Only every year the gap between where we should be and where we are becomes more dangerous. However, we will begin with the seven things that were achieved or that do open hope, to continue with the eight things that explain the widespread feeling of disappointment and concern. Precisely the kind of feeling that all the activism and all the social debate that took place the previous weeks wanted to avoid.

Seven positive points that feed some hope

1. New geopolitical wave

This COP makes clear the complexity of geopolitics and the difficulties in achieving the global transition towards a decarbonization of the economy. Progress has been made in understanding the problem and where solutions should go, but world leaders must move from tensions (such as the invasion of Ukraine) and make the most of new positive geopolitical developments, such as Brazil’s return to the world stage and the US-China climate rapprochement. Although Lula does not take office until January 1, 2023, he has presented his vision for the Amazon, the largest rainforest in the world and the focus of international outrage with Bolsonaro. One of the main things he wants to do is put Brazil back at the center of international geopolitics. He has had more conversations with world leaders in Egypt in a single day than Bolsonaro has had in four years. Something is something.

2. Bridgetown Agenda and Financial System

The reform of the international financial system to make it fairer and more fit for purpose has gained momentum and recognition. The so-called Bridgetown Agenda was presented together with the work agenda proposed between now and the spring meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Paris will host a summit on this topic in June 2023 to fill the gap left at this COP and get to work on a structural reform of the global financial system. It seems that the agenda is clear and with concrete dates and tangible objectives.

3. End greenwashing

Companies will have to respond to new UN rules and ensure their plans effectively reduce emissions if they are to be a credible part of the global response to climate change. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said there would be “zero tolerance for net greenwashing.” A new working group has been convened to advance the regulation of companies’ commitments to net zero emissions in countries around the world.

4. Renewable impulse

There was mention and agreements on clean energy, with measurable progress. Renewables are now cheaper than fossil fuels in two-thirds of the world, including emerging economies such as Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Peru, South Africa, Kenya, India, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines. Investment in the transition has risen 25% to more than $708 billion this year despite the economic crisis, including a massive boost to electric transportation.

5. Coal transition

On the sidelines, a $20 billion deal for Indonesia’s coal transition was closed, with similar deals planned for Vietnam and potentially Senegal. These “JET-P – Just Energy Transition Partnership” advances are based on the $8.5 billion agreement reached with South Africa at COP26. These aligned strategies could be important in accelerating the global energy transition.

6. Next stop: nature

Next month in Montreal, at COP15 of the Convention on Biodiversity, world leaders will gather to establish a global agreement for nature. We know that we cannot reach the goal of not exceeding 1.5°C without protecting nature, and we know that nature is the first line of defence against extreme weather events. The CBD in Montreal is an opportunity to right some of the mistakes of COP27, providing much-needed targets, timetables and funding to repair this piece of the climate puzzle.

7. Disputes

Meanwhile, litigation risks are rapidly increasing for governments and businesses that fail to comply with the Paris Agreement. There have been more than 2,000 climate cases that have already set a legal precedent. Ongoing cases cover issues such as inefficient climate targets, environmental pollution, human rights violations and greenwashing, among others. These cases are demonstrating that climate action is a legal duty, not a voluntary option.

Eight problems that reveal little progress and reasons for disappointment

1. Support to deal with loss and damage

Focusing on the symptoms of climate change, those symptoms that are encompassed in what is called “loss and damage,” reflects the global inability to face the terrible reality that we depend 80% on fossil fuels. We should focus on preventing further damage and loss and yet we are exploring how to compensate those who suffer it. In addition, rich countries have not yet delivered the 100 billion dollars a year that they promised for years and that at COP 26 in Glasgow seemed imminent. There is no clarity on the terms of the financing agreements.

At the last moment, well, rather in the discount time, some incomplete and hasty agreements have been reached in this regard.

The reassessment of paying and receiving countries is an important issue that will be relegated to next year. In the absence of an immediate source of funding, pledges of loss and damage went mainly to the Global Shield and UN early warning systems, with some commitments to the Santiago Network and country-specific projects. New pledges of €340 million were made for loss and damage.

2. Implementation?

Most disappointing is precisely the implementation of what the G20 itself in those same days of COP27 had agreed: “Urgently increase mitigation and adaptation ambition”, also focusing on the financing of loss and damage. The lack of specificity indicates that developed countries still do not accept that geopolitical, energy and economic crises are reasons to accelerate action, not to break promises again and again.

3. Fossil fuels and nature

The agreement reached in Sharm el Sheikh did not address the causes of the impacts of climate change: the use of fossil fuels and the destruction of nature. Countries did not reach an agreement on the phase-out of all fossil fuels, based on the call for the phase-out of coal made at COP26 in Glasgow. And they did not do so because the issue was barely on the table, as another of the most disturbing, which was not present either: that of fossil fuel subsidies by States. Without these issues at the heart of the negotiations, little progress on the main goals of climate action should come as a surprise.

4. Is 1.5°C still within reach?

The inability to make progress on emissions came despite the fact that the world has experienced climate impacts that alter politics, economics and tensions between countries. Severe droughts and heat waves in Europe, floods in Pakistan, Nigeria and Australia and drought in the United States are examples of how aid and support structures, such as the loss and damage fund, will be more in demand in the future because the root problems have not been addressed. The final decisions of COP27 refer to the 1.5°C scenario proposed at COP 21 in Paris, but only recognize the target. There is no mention of pathways or plans to achieve it. There have been no leaders who have broken with the fossil fuel industry.

5. Who pays and who receives?

India and China have become the world’s largest economies since the definition of “developed” and “developing” countries was established in 1992. The EU and the US want the current circumstances to be reflected. China and the League of Arab States, oil producers, want the historical balance to be taken into account.

This generates a vicious circle that blocks agreements but will have to be balanced in the coming years.

6. The change of course that has not yet reached Africa

It was thought that this would be the African COP, but not much new funding has been generated for vulnerable countries, whether African or not – leaving much to be done in 2023 – as countries were urged to increase adaptation financing, but without materializing.

7. Human rights

The COP 27 Presidency was under pressure throughout the meeting for its approach to human rights. The connection between civic space and climate action was underlined. It is clear that the struggle for increased freedom in Egypt, as in so many other countries, will continue long after the end of this meeting.

8. Fossil fuel lobbies

The 636 fossil fuel lobbies and CEOs of BP, Shell, Total and Occidental who walked the corridors eager to show off their green credentials were here for a reason: the energy transition has unstoppable momentum and poses a clear threat to their businesses.

The industry and its state sponsors are likely to continue to assert their influence in the process next year. Disinformation will continue to be a key tool in their lobbying operations. We should not let it happen.

Source: Retema