Sustainable recovery from pandemic essential to close emissions gap: UN report

The right policies could reduce emissions by up to 25% by 2030.

• Sustainable recovery measures can bring projected emissions by 2030 closer to levels consistent with the 2°C target of the Paris Agreement.

• The decrease in carbon emissions in 2020, of up to 7%, will have a negligible impact on climate change in the long term.

• New emission neutrality pledges should be reflected in countries’ commitments under the Paris Agreement and backed up with swift action.

A sustainable recovery from the pandemic could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 25% by 2030 and bring the world closer to achieving the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 2°C, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released today.

UNEP’s 2020 Emissions Gap Report indicates that, despite the drop in carbon dioxide emissions in 2020 due to COVID-19, the world is still heading for a temperature rise of more than 3°C this century.

However, if governments invest in climate action as part of the pandemic recovery and concretize their new emission neutrality plans in their Paris Agreement commitments at the next climate summit (Glasgow, November 2021), they can bring emissions to levels consistent with the 2°C target.

By combining post-COVID-19 efforts with an increase in the ambition of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and their rapid and vigorous implementation, governments could still reach the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

“The year 2020 is on track to be one of the warmest ever recorded, with wildfires, storms and droughts continuing to wreak havoc. The Emissions Gap Report shows that a green recovery from the pandemic can greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help curb climate change,” said Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director.

“I urge governments to support sustainable recovery in the next stage of COVID-19 fiscal interventions and significantly increase their climate ambitions in 2021,” Andersen added.

Each year, the Emissions Gap Report assesses the discrepancy between expected emission levels and those that would be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s goals of limiting global warming this century to well below 2°C, doing everything possible to curb it at 1.5°C.

The report indicates that in 2019 total greenhouse gas emissions, including land-use change, reached a record 59.1 gigatons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e). Global greenhouse gas emissions have increased on average by 1.4% annually since 2010, but in 2019 this increase was faster, at 2.6%, due to the greater impact of forest fires.

As a result of the reduction in travel, industrial activity and electricity generation this year due to the pandemic, carbon dioxide emissions are forecast to fall by as much as 7%. However, this cut translates into a reduction of only 0.01°C in global warming by 2050. Meanwhile, NDCs remain inadequate for achieving climate goals.

Green recovery is crucial

A green recovery can reduce up to 25% the emissions we would expect to see in 2030 under policies in place before COVID-19. These measures would put emissions in 2030 at 44 GtCO2e, instead of the 59 GtCO2e expected, a much better scenario than the emission reductions contemplated in the current unconditioned NDCs of the countries, which leave the world on track for a temperature increase of 3.2 C.

Such an ecological recovery would put emissions within the range of a 66% chance of keeping temperatures below 2°C, but would still be insufficient to reach the 1.5°C target.

Measures to prioritize in green fiscal recovery include direct support for zero-emission technologies and infrastructure, reducing fossil fuel subsidies, eliminating new coal plants, and boosting nature-based solutions, including large-scale landscape restoration and reforestation.

According to the report, sustainable fiscal recovery measures have so far been limited. About a quarter of G20 members have devoted parts of their spending – up to 3% of GDP – to low-carbon measures.

However, there remains a great opportunity for countries to implement sustainable policies and programmes. Governments should seize this opportunity in the next stage of COVID-19 fiscal interventions, according to the report.

The report also concludes that the growing number of countries that have committed to achieving net zero emissions by mid-century demonstrates “significant and encouraging progress.” By the time of the report’s completion, 126 countries producing 51% of global greenhouse gas emissions had adopted, announced or were considering emission neutrality targets.

However, to be feasible and credible, these commitments must urgently be translated into sound short-term policies and actions and reflected in NDCs. Ambition levels in the Paris Agreement still need to roughly triple to get the world on track to the 2°C trajectory and increased at least fivefold for the 1.5°C pathway.

Transform consumption patterns and maritime and air transport

Each year, the report also looks at the potential of specific sectors in the fight against climate change. In 2020, consider consumer behaviour and the shipping and aviation sectors.

Maritime and air transport, which accounts for 5% of global emissions, requires attention. Improvements in technologies and operations can increase fuel efficiency, but the projected increased demand indicates that this will not result in decarbonisation and absolute CO2 reductions. Both sectors must combine energy efficiency with a rapid shift away from fossil fuels.

The report states that stronger climate action must include transformations in the consumption behavior of the private sector and individuals. About two-thirds of global emissions are tied to private households, according to consumption-based accounting.

The highest-income segment of the population bears the greatest responsibility: the emissions of the richest 1% of the world’s population are more than double those of the poorest 50%. This group will need to reduce its footprint 30 times to stay in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Possible actions to support and enable lower carbon consumption include replacing short-haul domestic flights with train travel, creating incentives and infrastructure to enable the use of bicycles and car-sharing, improving the energy efficiency of homes, and designing policies to reduce food waste.

Source: UN