Only by multiplying efforts by 10 will it be possible to stop climate change

To meet the climate mitigation commitments contained in the 2015 Paris agreement, a global effort should be made 10 times greater than what has been done in recent years. This is indicated by research, published in Nature Climate Change, which analyzes the evolution of emissions of gases that heat the atmosphere made by 214 countries in the last ten years, before and during the pandemic.

CO2 emissions _{from the energy sector, the main causes of climate change, decreased by around 7% in 2020 compared to 2019 levels.}

It is easy to guess that it was the consequence of the confinement and restriction of activities measures applied in almost the whole world to curb the spread of covid. It was an unprecedented crash: the biggest drop in emissions in history.

However, what happened last year was a temporary phenomenon, not representative. It does not serve as a reference to know what countries are doing to combat the climate crisis.

Instead, the research provides a more accurate portrait of what governments are doing.

One of the conclusions is that a total of 64 countries (high- and middle-income) are decreasing their carbon (_CO2) emissions from burning fossil fuels since the Paris agreement was signed in 2015. In contrast, in another 150 countries they have increased in this period; therefore, the calculation in the last decade is that they have continued to grow, although with a slower pace.

The 64 countries that have embarked on a virtuous path collectively reduced these emissions in the period 2016-2019 (compared to 2011-015). But those advances are only a small part of the effort that should be made to stop warming well below 2 degrees Celsius as set out in the Paris agreement.

“To put ourselves on a trajectory that stops warming at 2ºC of increase, it would require a global effort 10 times greater than these 64 countries have done,” says Pep Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project, one of the authors of a study.

“It is not about solving the problem by asking the countries that are already acting to do more: it is the global whole that must do ten times more,” Canadell reiterates.

APART FROM THE PANDEMIC

Emissions are reduced in rich countries but grow in other economies

As there are 150 other countries that “are doing nothing or very little”, global emissions in these years have continued to rise. What has been done so far “is only a tenth of what is needed each year over the next decade” and to achieve a balance of zero emissions by mid-century, adds this expert.

Most of the gas reductions were due to changes such as replacing coal with cleaner sources, such as renewables. Other times the key was not climate or energy policies, but economic recessions.

The data

Between 2015 and 2019, the combined emissions of 64 countries (those that have already embarked on a virtuous path in the wake of the Paris agreement) decreased the generation of these gases by 160 million tons of carbon dioxide per year (0.1 Gt of _CO2). However, it is one-tenth of what is necessary. To limit warming to around 1.5°C and well below 2°C, in line with the Paris agreement, global reductions of between 1 and 2 _GtCO2 per year will be needed during the 2020s and beyond, according to the Nature Climate Change study.

After the 2015 Paris agreement, the best climate action performance occurred mostly in the group of high-income economies. The list of exemplary nations is headed by the United Kingdom, which reduced emissions by an average of 3.6% per year (compared to the five years prior to the pact); followed by Denmark, with -2.8%; Japan, -2%, and the US, which despised the Paris agreement, lowered them by 0.7%.

Spain also embarked on a correct path, with an average annual decrease of 1.3%, according to Canadell.

However, some rich or high-income countries have increased their CO2 emissions from the use of fossil fuels in the same period. This was the case in Australia (+1.0%), the Russian Federation (+0.2%), Canada (+0.1%) and New Zealand (+0.1%).

In a second group of countries, the 99 middle-income economies, emissions have been rising 0.8% a year since 2015. For example, they grew in Indonesia (4.7%), Chile (1.2%) and China by +0.4, mainly due to the continued growth of the combustion of fossil fuels, in particular oil and natural gas.

“China has increased its emissions little, but even if it is only 0.4%, it is a qualitatively and quantitatively important figure,” adds Canadell. However, in 30 countries in this group there was a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions (Israel, Hong Kong and Montenegro).

“This is a good sign, as it suggests that actions to reduce emissions are spreading beyond more advanced economies,” Canadell says.

Finally, the 78 countries with lower incomes or least developed, with low-income economies, show since 2015 a growth of gases of 4.5%, since most of them started from very low levels of fossil fuel use. This group includes Mongolia, Pakistan and Uganda with emissions growth rates above 8% per year. However, this group of 78 countries accounts for only 14% of global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels.

RANKING

Britain tops the list among the most virtuous nations

The study authors conclude that decreases in emissions due to temporary COVID restrictions alone will not result in long-term reductions. “To maintain the decline in global emissions while supporting economic recovery, strategies such as large-scale deployment of renewables and divestment from fossil fuel infrastructure around the world will be necessary,” they conclude.

Source: The Vanguard