Full NDC Synthesis Report: Some progress, but still a big concern

UN Climate Change today published a synthesis of climate action plans communicated in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The NDC synthesis report indicates that while there is a clear trend towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions over time, countries must urgently redouble their climate efforts if they want to prevent global temperature rise from exceeding the Paris Agreement target of 2°C. and if possible 1.5 ºC, by the end of the century.

The synthesis report was requested by the Parties to the Paris Agreement to help them assess the progress of climate action ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) to be held in November in Glasgow, Scotland.

The report includes information from the 191 Parties to the Paris Agreement based on their latest available NDCs in the provisional register of national contributions as of July 30, 2021, including information from 86 updated or new NDCs submitted by 113 Parties. New or updated NDCs cover approximately 59% of Paris Agreement Parties and account for around 49% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

For the group of 113 Parties with new or updated Nationally Determined Contributions, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to decrease by 12% in 2030 compared to 2010. This is an important step towards the reductions noted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which estimated that limiting the increase in global average temperature to 1.5°C requires a reduction in CO2 emissions of 45% by 2030, or a reduction of 25% in 2030 to limit warming to 2°C.

Within the group of 113 Parties, 70 countries indicated carbon neutrality targets by mid-century. This means an even greater reduction in emissions, of around 26% by 2030 compared to 2010.

“I congratulate all Parties that have submitted updated or new Nationally Determined Contributions,” said Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change. “The synthesis shows that countries are moving towards the temperature targets of the Paris Agreement. This means that the built-in mechanism established by the Agreement to allow for a gradual increase in ambition is working,” he added.

A considerable number of NDCs in developing countries contain conditional emission reduction commitments, which can only be implemented with access to increased financial resources and other support. The report suggests that full implementation of these components could allow global emissions to peak by 2030. Support is often also essential for many climate change adaptation actions, which are reflected in many of the contributions available.

“This shows how important it is to support developing countries. We need to reach peak emissions as soon as possible before 2030 and support developing countries to increase their resilience to climate change.” A commitment to mobilize $100 billion annually by 2020 was key to empowering climate action in developing countries. That commitment that was made in the UNFCCC process more than 10 years ago has yet to be fulfilled. It’s time to deliver: COP26 is the place to do it. Developing countries need this support to act as ambitiously as possible,” Espinosa urged.

The report also contains some worrying conclusions. The available Nationally Determined Contributions of the 191 Parties, taken together, imply a significant increase in global GHG emissions in 2030 compared to 2010, of around 16%. According to the latest findings of the IPCC, this increase, unless quickly modified, can cause a temperature increase of about 2.7 ºC by the end of the century.

“The 16% increase is a big cause for concern. It stands in stark contrast to science’s calls for rapid, sustained and large-scale reductions in emissions to avoid the most severe climate consequences and suffering, especially of the most vulnerable, around the world,” Espinosa said. “The report clearly shows that countries willing to submit new NDCs or update them almost always present better, more comprehensive and more ambitious plans. The contribution framework has proven to work, provided that all Parties are willing to meet their commitments under the Paris Agreement. Not contributing could contribute to failure,” he added.

Espinosa clarified that Parties can submit NDCs or update those already submitted at any time, including in the run-up to COP26. In this case, and to ensure that the COP has the latest information, UN Climate Change will publish an update of the main findings of the report covering all NDCs submitted on or before 12 October 2021. The update is scheduled to be released on October 25, 2021.

“Knowing how much work has been done to improve NDCs, I again call on all Parties that have not yet done so to submit new or updated contributions. However, Parties that have already submitted their proposals also have the opportunity to review their NDCs to increase their level of ambition,” said Patricia Espinosa.

“The trend shown by Parties that have submitted both updated and new NDCs and that have announced carbon neutrality targets for mid-century is really encouraging,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. “Unfortunately, this trend does not show the whole picture, but only a positive portion of a much broader and more worrying trajectory. It is time for all remaining Parties to step up and for major emitters to set an example,” he stressed.

Alok Sharma, incoming President of COP26, said the report underscores why COP26 must be a success. “The trend of new or updated Nationally Determined Contributions is truly encouraging. However, the worrying conclusions for the 191 Parties contained in this report are not the message that COP26 should convey. They are not in tune with the reality of the ever-increasing climate impacts we are seeing around the world,” he said.

“The Glasgow COP26, informed by the recent findings of the IPCC and the Synthesis Report on Nationally Determined Contributions, should provide a positive signal that the world is transitioning to a low-carbon future, in line with the science and in line with the Goals of the Paris Agreement committed by almost every country in the world.” Added. “To achieve this, it is urgent to increase ambition, especially on the part of those who have not yet done so.”

New or updated Nationally Determined Contributions show a marked improvement in the quality of information submitted, both for mitigation and adaptation, and tend to align with broader long-term low-emission development goals, achieving carbon neutrality, national legislative/regulatory/planning processes, and other international frameworks such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In addition, non-State actors and other stakeholders are increasingly involved in the planning and implementation processes of NDCs.

COP25 President Carolina Schmidt said: “Improved data, better planning processes and greater participation of all strata of society lead to greater ambition in NDCs and are critical to their implementation. I commend all Parties that have submitted new or updated Nationally Determined Contributions. I also congratulate all those who have included adaptation in their NDCs. These Parties show what is possible, and what everyone should strive for.”

Source: UN