Energy transition: modeling the impact on natural gas

Report from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies in which two scenarios have been developed considering the impact of the energy transition on natural gas. One of the scenarios (FAV1.5) is more favorable for gas, with a significant increase in gas versus coal and oil, along with a slower deployment of renewables. The other scenario (UNFAV1.5) sees gas gaining share more slowly than coal and oil and faster deployment of renewables. Both scenarios are compared to a normal scenario (BAU). By 2050, the differences between the three scenarios are significant, with BAU at just under 5,000 bcm, FAV1.5 at 4,200 bcm, and UNFAV1.5 at 2,550 bcm. By 2050, hydrogen will account for around 10% of final energy consumption in both FAV1.5 and UNFAV1.5.