UN climate goals “within reach” after US return

A surprising new analysis, carried out by the organization Climate Action Tracker, points out that the objectives of the Paris Agreement against climate change “are within reach”. If all national governments meet their targets and achieve a net-zero emissions balance by 2050, the global temperature rise could be as low as 2.1°C by 2100. This is the optimistic outlook that the report shows. The Paris agreement aims to stop the increase in temperatures below 2º C (compared to the pre-industrial era) and continue efforts to contain it at 1.5º C. The Return of the U.S. the Paris agreement is the key, as it relaunches the expectations of climate ambition

For more than a decade, Climate Action Tracker (CAT) researchers have been assessing the impact of global _CO2 reduction plans and pledges announced by countries.

After the fiasco of the Copenhagen summit (2009), this think tank estimated that the rise in global temperatures would reach 3.5 ° C by the end of this century. But this projection was corrected after the agreement reached in the French capital (2015), in which all countries assumed the need to draw up plans to avoid dangerous warming for the Earth. In September of this same year, this study center estimated the increase in temperatures at 2.7 ° C by 2100, if the promises of Paris were fulfilled.

The Chinese factor

This improved forecast was due to governments implementing new policies, activating the use of renewable energy and reducing coal utilization while expectations of emissions growth have moderated.

However, that figure (2.7º C) was still well above the 2º C target and still far from the 1.5º C target (which scientists consider to be the insurmountable threshold that should not be crossed, to prevent catastrophic damage). But more recently some elements have further cleared the horizon.

Chinese President Xi Jinping told the UN assembly that his country would make a commitment to achieve a net-zero emissions balance by 2060. And Japan and Korea have made the same promise (bringing forward climate neutrality by 2050).

U.S. Involvement

The other significant change is the election of Joe Biden in the United States, because for the American president-elect to face climate change is an important part of his agenda. In his electoral program he includes the plan to take the United States on the path of net zero emissions by 2050.

In total, 127 countries, responsible for around 63% of emissions, are considering or have adopted strategies to achieve a zero-emission balance by mid-century.

Five years later, it’s clear that the Paris Agreement is driving climate action

Niklas Höhne. New Climate Institute

“Five years later, it is clear that the Paris Agreement is driving climate action,” said Professor Niklas Höhne of the New Climate Institute, an organisation that collaborates with climate action tracker.

“The Paris Agreement introduced as a goal to achieve a balance of net zero greenhouse gas emissions and now we are seeing a wave of countries signing up to this plan. Can anyone really afford to be on the sidelines of this wave?” he asks.

“We now have more than 50% of global emissions covered by large countries with a goal of zero emissions by mid-century,” said Bill Hare of Climate Analytics, who helped lead the Climate Action Tracker analysis.

“When you add all that up, along with what many other countries are doing, you move the temperature dial from around 2.7º C to very close to two degrees,” he adds.

Failure the short term

Plans for 2050 are all well and good, but so far none of the big _CO2-emitting countries have strengthened their 2030 climate action plans (which it could have done this year). “Countries have not yet adjusted their short-term actions to the long-term path,” Höhne summarizes.

“We see emissions continuing to rise through 2030, which does not lead us down the path that will allow governments to meet their ambitious net-zero commitments,” Bill Hare said.

Source: The Vanguard