The path of_CO2 emissions worldwide will lead to a global temperature increase of up to 2.6ºC by the end of the century

UN Environment Programme’s ‘Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window – Climate crisis calls for a rapid transformation of societies’ urges change in ‘inadequate progress’ through a rapid fall in CO emissions₂ because, at this time, meeting the objective of the Paris Agreement (limiting the increase to 1.5ºC) “is not credible”.

The report considers that it is “urgent” to undertake both sectoral and transversal transformations in areas such as energy demand, industry, transport, construction, food and financial systems to help avoid climate disaster. The report also reflects that despite the decision of “all” countries at the XXVI Glasgow Climate Summit (COP26) committed to update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and some updates were communicated by some nations, progress has been “unfortunately inadequate”.

The current path of global emissions will lead to a global increase in temperature of 2.4 to 2.6 degrees Celsius (ºC) by the end of the century, according to the UN Environment Program (UNEP).

In its “2022 Emissions Gap Report: The Window That Closes – The Climate Crisis Calls for a Rapid Transformation of Societies” it urges to change the “inadequate progress” through a rapid fall in CO2 emissions because, at this time, meeting the objective of the Paris Agreement (limiting the increase to 1.5ºC) “is not credible”.

The report considers that it is “urgent” to undertake both sectoral and transversal transformations in areas such as energy demand, industry, transport, construction, food and financial systems to help avoid climate disaster, according to Europa Press.

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said the report expresses in “cold scientific terms” what nature is saying, every year, through “fatal” floods, storms and intense fires.

“We need to stop replenishing our atmosphere with greenhouse gas emissions and stop them quickly,” Andersen said. Thus, he indicated that there was already an opportunity to undertake gradual changes, but “now time is up.” “Only a transformation from the root to the leaves of our economies and societies can save us from accelerating climate disaster,” he warned.

The report reflects that despite the decision of “all” countries at the XXVI Glasgow Climate Summit (COP26) committed to update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and some updates were communicated by some nations, progress has been “unfortunately inadequate”.

Specifically, the NDCs committed this year 2022 only represent 0.5 gigatons of_CO2 equivalent, less than 1 percent of global emissions projected for 2030. Therefore, the analysis reflects that the “lack of progress” leaves the world in a painful increase in global temperature above the goal of the Paris Climate Agreement (2ºC or preferably 1.5ºC). It even warns that unconditional NDCs are at a 66 percent chance of limiting the global warming temperature to 2.6ºC by the end of the century. In the case of conditional NDCs, i.e. those that depend on external support, the path would be reduced to 2.4ºC. In fact, current policies could lead to a global temperature increase of 2.8ºC which would greatly increase the gap between pledges and action.

For its part, the UNEP report states that, in the best-case scenario, that is, one in which both unconditional NDCs and other additional zero-emission commitments were fully implemented, global temperature would increase by 1.8ºC by the end of the century. “So there is hope. However, that scenario is not yet credible according to the discrepancy between current emissions and NDC targets of zero emissions in the medium and long term. In short, the NDC report estimates that in order to comply with the Paris Agreement, the planet “needs to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to unprecedented levels over the next eight years.” To make the road less expensive, emissions have to fall at least 45 percent above current policies planned for 2030. The 2°C target would require a 30 percent cut.

Accelerating the transition

To achieve such massive cuts requires a transformation “on a large-scale, rapid and systemic.” Every fraction of a degree matters to vulnerable communities, species, ecosystems and each of us,” Andersen said. The document points out that the transformation to achieve neutrality of emissions in energy demand, transport and building, but requires that the changes initiated be made more “much faster”. Electricity demand is more advanced and renewable electricity costs have fallen dramatically, however, the path of change must increase measures to ensure a just transition and universal access to energy.

The UNEP report proposes a series of recommendations that must be applied “very quickly” in the transport industry, in the sector of zero-emission technologies and, to advance in this transformation “all” sectors need to “ban” new fossil fuel-intensive infrastructure, advance in zero carbon technologies and apply them, in addition to promoting behavioral changes. These changes to cut emissions by a third include measures such as improving natural ecosystems, changes in global diet, improving food production and decarbonizing agriculture, as well as supply chains. This could reduce emissions by around a third by 2050 compared to current levels.

Source: Renewable Energies