IEA forecasts global peak in_CO2 emissions in 2025

The agency expressed concern about the “fractures” between rich and poor countries in terms of investment in low-carbon energy.

Paradoxical and positive effect for the climate of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, global greenhouse gas emissions should reach their “peak” in 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted on Thursday.

Eight days before the start of COP27, the World Climate Conference in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, the Agency noted in its 2022 annual report a potential acceleration of the energy transition due to an increase in investments in sustainable energy due to the conflict in Ukraine, which has turned the global energy market upside down.

He also expressed concern about the “fractures” between rich and poor countries in terms of investment in low-carbon energy and called for a “greater international effort” to “reduce” this “worrying gap”.

“The global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is bringing about profound and long-term changes that have the potential to accelerate the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system,” the IEA said in its report’s presentation document.

For the first time, the three scenarios studied each year by the Paris-based agency and subsidiary of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) identify a peak or plateau in the consumption of each of the fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil) that cause global warming.

In the central scenario, which is based on the commitments already announced by governments on climate investments (“Inflation Reduction Act” in the United States, “Fit for 55” and “RePowerEu” in Europe, “Green Transformation” in Japan…), global CO2 emissions would reach 37,000 million tons in 2025 and then fall to 32,000 million in 2050.

But despite those efforts, average temperatures would rise by around 2.5 degrees by 2100, which is “far from enough to avoid severe weather consequences.”

The agency once again underlines the need for massive investments in clean or low-carbon energy, such as nuclear, and acceleration in certain sectors, such as electric batteries (for cars) or photovoltaics.

In its central scenario, these investments must exceed $2 trillion by 2030, and would have to amount to $4 trillion to meet the conditions of the net-zero emissions scenario by 2050.

Source: Caracol Radio