Fossil_CO2 emissions to be recorded, study says

CO2 emissions from fossil _{fuel consumption will reach a record high in 2022, according to a study published during Egypt’s COP27 climate summit.}

Total greenhouse gas emissions, including those from deforestation, will reach 40.6 billion tonnes, just below the record level of 2019, according to the first projections published for this year 2022 by the scientists of the Global Carbon project.

That means that, at that rate, there is only a 50% chance of preventing global warming from exceeding 1.5C in the next nine years, according to the study, AFP news agency reported.

CO2 emissions of fossil _{origin (oil, gas and coal) “will increase by 1% compared to 2021, to reach 36,600 million tons, a little above the levels of 2019, before Covid-19”, say the calculations of the Global Carbon project published this Friday.}

The increase is mainly due to the consumption of oil (2.2%) and coal (1%), and the recovery of air traffic.

“Two factors come together, the continuation of the post-Covid recovery, and the energy crisis” derived from the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Glen Peters, one of the authors of the study published in the journal Earth Systems Science Data, on the occasion of COP27 in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, told AFP news agency.

The Global Carbon project team, which brings together more than 100 scientists from 80 institutions, calculates_CO2 emissions, the main gas causing warming, each year.

Greenhouse gas emissions are projected to be reduced by 45% by 2030 to meet the main objective of the 2015 Paris Agreement: limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era.

However, with warming that has already occurred (1.2°C), climate catastrophes are multiplying worldwide, as evidenced this year through heat waves, droughts, floods and fires.

“We have made some progress,” says climatologist Corinne Le Quéré, another author of the report, according to whom the trajectory of increase in emissions from fossil fuels went from 3% per year in the 2000s to 0.5% per year in the last decade.

“We have shown that climate policy works. But only concerted action of the level of what was done in the face of Covid can reverse the curve,” he insisted.

Among the world’s biggest polluters, the strongest spike in fossil emissions in 2022 will be in India, with a 6% increase due to coal consumption. In the United States the increase will be 1.5%.

In China, these emissions are expected to be reduced by 0.9%, after the sharp fall at the beginning of the year due to anti-Covid lockdowns and the crisis in the real estate sector.

The European Union, affected by the energy crisis stemming from the war in Ukraine, will see a fall of 0.8%.

In the rest of the world there will be an increase of 1.7%, mainly fueled by the recovery of air traffic.

In addition, warming is impacting natural carbon wells, which play a critical role in mitigating it.

CO2 uptake by _{terrestrial sinks has been reduced by 17% and that of the oceans by 4% in the decade 2012-21.}

Because of multiple crises, 2022 will not be a typical year from which clear lessons can be drawn, the researchers say.

The 1% increase is perhaps not “a long-term trend,” estimates Corinne Le Quéré. But “emissions are not going down as they should,” AFP concludes.

Source: Nuevo Día