Updated climate targets could achieve a 25% reduction in global_CO2 emissions

According to Rystad Energy’s assessment, the latest NDCs project a consistent trajectory with a 1.7°C increase by 2035

As the momentum towards COP30 intensifies, Rystad Energy has analysed more than 400 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), both historical and updated, to assess the degree of alignment of the global energy system with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Most of the contributions focus on the short-term decarbonization of the electric power, electricity and transport sectors, setting clear targets for the adoption of renewables and electric vehicles, with alternative fuels and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) for sectors that are difficult to decarbonize. This year, the signatory countries present their commitments within the framework of NDC 3.0. While many targets seem more ambitious, this is mainly due to a shift in timelines from 2030 to 2035 rather than stronger policy measures. According to Rystad’s assessment, the latest NDCs project a consistent trajectory with a 1.7°C rise by 2035. Full implementation of these commitments could reduce emissions by about 25% (10 Gt) from current levels by 2035. According to Rystad Energy’s analysis, NDCs can be implemented by fulfilling the three tasks of the energy transition:

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