Final stretch for a climate change law questioned for lack of ambition

A decade ago the Cortes asked that Spain have a climate change law. And more than five years ago the Paris Agreement against global warming was approved without Spain, a country most exposed in Europe to the negative impacts of the climate crisis, having approved a specific rule to comply with that treaty. But the Spanish climate change law has entered the final stretch and in the first weeks of April it is expected that Congress will give it the go-ahead to conclude the process in the Senate. At that time, the country will finally have an instrument with the rank of law to help the economy as a whole to disengage from fossil fuels, which are mainly responsible for greenhouse gases.

The law’s overall goal, in line with the Paris Agreement, is to achieve climate neutrality by 2050: that only gases that can be captured by sinks, such as forests, are emitted. But the harshest criticism of the rule by some parties and green NGOs focuses on the lack of ambition of the intermediate goals, for this decade. The law will establish, as already agreed by the parties – and except for a last-minute surprise – that Spain must emit 23% less greenhouse gases in 2030 than in 1990. “It is a very low objective that is based on very conservative calculations,” says Inés Sabanés, deputy of Greens Equo. “It’s not a clear and courageous bet,” adds Alicia Cantero of Greenpeace.

Apparently, and if the objective of the Spanish law is compared with that of the EU and the European powers, there is no debate: the goal set for 2030 taking 1990 as its starting point falls very short. Compared to Spain’s 23% cut, the EU proposes a reduction of 55%, more than double. But when you look at the place from which each one departs, the reality is very nuanced.

PSOE and Unidas Podemos, which together promote this law, intend to include in the norm a clause so that the goals are reviewed upwards periodically. And the first revision would be in 2023. But both parties advocate the 23% cut. “We dragged a very important delay that makes us in a particularly difficult position,” says Juan López de Uralde, deputy of Unidas Podemos. “In 2018, while the European Union had reduced its emissions as a whole by 23% since 1990, Spain had increased them by 16%,” he adds. Or put another way: the problem is that the EU reached its peak emissions in 1990, while Spain did not achieve it until 2007 for a mixture of economic reasons and lack of climate measures.

The goal of 23% is an “important effort” because Spain “started at a disadvantage”, defends López de Uralde, whose party presented in 2018 a bill in which it advocated a 35% cut in 2030. “From the beginning of the process we have understood that we had to increase ambition,” says this deputy, who defends the upward revision system that the law will establish and other aspects such as the commitment to have a 100% renewable electricity system by 2050. And he adds about the criticism of other parties: “the worst scenario would be not to have the law.”

“The calculations to set the 23% target were made before the pandemic,” says Sabanés, who recalls that the European recovery funds will serve to accelerate decarbonization. In addition, covid led in 2020 to a historic drop in emissions. Hugo Morán, Secretary of State for the Environment, admits the influence that these factors will have in the future. Therefore, he adds, the regulations have been conceived as something “dynamic” and the first upward revision of the goals has been advanced to 2023.

“The law is born old and the goal is unambitious because it does not comply with science,” cantero criticizes. But what does science say? The Paris Agreement does not speak of intermediate targets, but of achieving neutrality of emissions in the world from the middle of the century to contain warming. The safety limit is to ensure that the temperature increase is below two degrees compared to pre-industrial levels. And strive, so that it does not exceed 1.5 degrees, according to the covenant. In both cases, net-zero emissions must be reached, but in order to meet the 1.5 target, it must be reached earlier, by 2050; and a 2018 report by the IPCC — the scientists who advise the UN on climate change — noted that this required that by 2030 global emissions of CO₂ — the main greenhouse gas — should have been reduced by 45%, but from 2010 levels.

The reduction by 2030 of 23% of emissions compared to 1990 contemplated by the Spanish law in process translates into a cut of almost 37.9% when 2010 is taken as a reference point, much closer to the 45% that the IPCC put on the table in its report. “I do not agree that the objective of the law is not ambitious,” says Mikel González-Eguino, a researcher at the Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3). “The objective has to be ambitious, but it has to be able to be met,” adds this specialist in energy transition who recalls that the European Commission has applauded the energy and climate plan presented by Spain, which already established the cut in emissions of 23% by 2030. “We are far above the efforts required of us by the Commission,” Hugo Morán emphasizes about that Brussels evaluation.

But is the Spanish objective very far from that of the EU and the main European countries?

European Union: a 55% cut

In December, the European institutions decided to increase their cut target for 2030 and went from 40% to 55%, always compared to 1990. Compared to EU emissions in 2010, the cut would be 47.8%, above the IPCC recommendation. Europe is now processing its climate law, which will be approved this year.

Germany: a 55% cut

In 2019, the country passed the Federal Climate Protection Law, which sets a 55% cut from 1990 levels for 2030. Compared to 2010, the reduction would be 40.3%.

France: minus 40% emissions

The country hosted in 2015 the climate summit that approved the Paris Agreement. The socialist François Hollande approved that same year his “law of energy transition for green growth”. The standard sets a target of 40% of emissions by 2030 compared to 1990. If 2010 is taken as a reference, the cut will be 35.7%, two points less than Spain’s target.

UK: 68% less emissions

In 2008, the UK was the first country in the world to pass a climate change law. A commission periodically sets the cutting targets. The last update, from 2016, established that by 2032 the country will have to have reduced emissions by 57% compared to 1990. But in December Boris Johnson pledged that the cut would be 68%. Compared to 2010 levels, this would be a decrease of 58.3%, well above what the IPCC called for.

Source: The Country