Confinement measures also plummet pollution levels in Spain

Uncertainty haunts the climate future despite the collapse of emissions

Bread for today, hunger for tomorrow? beyond the immediate environmental benefits of the collapse of CO2 emissions due to the economic and mobility shutdown in the face of the coronavirus crisis, the long-term climate effects in countries are uncertain and complex to determine.

Experts warn that long-term climate scenarios could include economic stimulus from governments to favor polluting industries (steel, cement, aviation) in a future phase of expansion, overcome the current health crisis.

On the other hand, the consolidation of new mobility patterns or teleworking is not ruled out, all factors that would impact on oil demand and the balance of emissions.

It remains to be seen what governments will do after the health crisis: whether they will promote the rebound of traditional energy or a change of system with lower levels of gases and climate impact, explain climate analysts from the Four Twenty Seven service under the Moody’s financial risk rating agency, in a recently published article.

“From the coronavirus crisis, communities can learn lessons to prepare for increasing disasters, as can financial institutions in the face of sudden disruptions in economic activity,” the experts add.

The emissions of the first country affected by the coronavirus crisis, China, were already 25 percent lower in mid-February than in previous weeks, while those of nitrogen dioxide in Italy, where the pandemic subsequently jumped with greater virulence in Europe, are also decreasing significantly, according to analyst data.

In Spain, the second European country so far most affected by COVID-19, the pandemic predicts a “spectacular” drop in polluting gases, according to forecasts recently published by the Sustainability Observatory.

The health crisis is diluting climate care and “it will not be a political priority in the short term”, but the protection of the health of citizens and economies against COVID-19 will prevail, as is logical, on the other hand.

The weakening interest in climate is already evident; many of the events cancelled these days are environmental and the celebration of the COP26 climate summit scheduled for November in the Scottish city of Glasgow, is reeling and could be postponed or canceled by the coronavirus.

In Spain, the Government still does not launch the package announced with environmental laws, which would include an ambitious Climate Change Law, because legislative activity is stopped by the coronavirus.

In the European Union (EU) the commitment to a Green Deal to advance in the neutrality of emissions hardly has an echo due to a coronavirus crisis that logically monopolizes covers while climate research is punctuated by the paralysis or cancellation of large scientific projects.

But, according to experts, leaving aside the problem of climate change now immersed in the seriousness of the global health crisis will not exempt it from its effects: if a devastating storm or a megafire forces neighbors to abandon their homes and confine themselves in crowded spaces, the risks of contagion will increase.

In the face of these climatic eventualities, in addition, in a context of uncertainty such as the current one, the costs for public health and the economy would be further aggravated, given how depleted the production and supply chains are already.

Source: The Vanguard