Almost the entire planet already lives in a climate of 1.5°C, although the boundary has not yet been crossed

The 46 IPCC regions have reached, by 2025, between 90% and 94% of the predicted warming at 1.5°C globally and between 65% and 76% of that of 2°C, according to an analysis that reconstructs the human effect even where there are hardly any records

Global surface temperature change, trend rates, and underlying emissions

The 1.5°C threshold of the Paris Agreement is measured above the global average and in the long term, and in these terms the world has not yet officially crossed it. But the planet is not warming the same everywhere: the 46 terrestrial regions into which the IPCC divides the world have already accounted for between 90% and 94% of the warming projected for that threshold by 2025. This is the conclusion of an analysis signed by Tong Li, Francis W. Zwiers and Xuebin Zhang, from the University of Victoria (Canada), and by Qiaohong Sun, in the article All regions of the IPCC AR6 are close to their warming limits equivalent to 1.5°C and 2°C, published on November 9 in Nature Climate Change.

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