Emissions need to be cut by 18% in four years to limit the temperature peak to 1.7 degrees

The world will exceed the 1.5°C threshold set in the Paris Agreement, but the warming peak could be limited to 1.7-1.8°C if emissions fall by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% five years later. Global emissions stagnated in 2025, but those of the United States grew by 133 megatons, the largest increase of any country, and its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is one of the reasons for the projections to worsen compared to last year.

The world will exceed the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels, but it is still possible that this excess will be “as low and short as possible” if countries reduce their emissions by 18% by the end of this decade, 45% by 2035 and 69% five years later.

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