The 2026 Emissions Gap Report points to a “minimum possible” 1.5°C overshoot

For the “lowest possible” 1.5°C overheating scenario to become a reality, GHG emissions would need to be reduced by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared to 2025 levels.

This is in stark contrast to the commitments contained in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the full implementation of which would reduce emissions by 5% to 8% by 2030 and by 11% to 15% by 2035, relative to 2025 levels. The report underscores the need for effective climate policies to be applied across the economy, replicated and sustained globally, while ensuring coherence with development priorities and local conditions.
“The opportunity to keep global warming below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, with no or limited overheating, has disappeared. The task now is to minimise overheating and get back to 1.5°C.”

Continue reading in SDG. IISD