Past emissions from the 178 largest producers of oil, gas, coal and cement will continue to warm the planet for centuries and by 2500 will still add between 0.31 and 0.45 °C to global temperature

Between 1854 and 2024, the world’s 178 largest producers of oil, gas, coal and cement released more than 1.2 trillion tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. A study by the University of Washington now calculates that these past emissions will continue to warm the planet for centuries, whatever path future emissions take. According to their simulations, the carbon already emitted by these companies explained about 0.66 °C of global warming in 2025. In the year 2500 it would still contribute between 0.31 and 0.45 °C, depending on the scenario.

Who signs the study and what question

The work was led by Dargan Frierson, an associate professor of atmospheric and climate sciences at the University of Washington, along with Lauren Henrie, a former student of Environmental Science and Resource Management at the same university. It was published on September 23, 2026.
“We know that fossil fuel emissions have caused a lot of warming, and we are seeing their effects, but the question is: how long does that warming last in the future?” The authors start from a gap in the scientific literature. “Previous studies on climate responsibility have focused almost exclusively on the past,” they write in the paper.

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