COP27: What can we expect from this year’s climate conference?

What are COP meetings and what are they for?

In 1992, the Earth Summit was held in Rio de Janeiro, better known as the Rio Conference, where the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) was established, among other agreements. The summits known as COPs (Conference of the Parties) are one of the instruments to try to reach binding international agreements in relation to the reduction of emissions.

The UNFCC has hosted an annual COP from the first in 1995 in Berlin to the twenty-sixth in Glasgow last year. Perhaps the most famous COP was the third (COP3), in 1997, as the Kyoto Protocol was established: a series of commitments to achieve the decarbonization of society and limit the damages caused by climate change.

Another particularly important COP was the 2015 COP21 in Paris, where an agreement was signed to limit global warming to 2°C and included the aspiration to limit it to 1.5°C.

What happened at COP26?

Last year’s COP is seen as falling short of expectations, but some progress was made.

The firm commitment to achieve zero emissions by 2050 was expected to keep alive the possibility of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. This required reducing emissions by 45% by 2030 compared to emissions in 2010. However, the signed agreements lead us down the path of an increase in average temperature of about 2.4 °C.

The negotiations at the last minute were particularly frustrating, as the term “phase-out” of coal was changed to “phased out” just before the negotiation was closed.

Another key aspect of COP26 was financing for developing countries. This is both to help the clean development of those countries and to compensate for the damages of climate change that has been caused by the most industrialized countries. COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009 pledged a $100 billion annual climate fund for developing countries from 2020. The current figures are still well below that target.

CO₂ emissions and temperature have increased in recent decades despite multiple climate conferences.

What can we expect from COP27?

This year’s COP is proposed as the one of concrete actions and commitments in reducing emissions and also in the financing of losses and damages derived from climate change to the global south.

It has been called the “COP of Africa” because important commitments are expected in particular for the African continent, one of the most vulnerable to climate change both from an environmental and social point of view, but paradoxically one of the least involved in the historical accumulation of emissions.

Despite previous COP agreements, the United Nations estimates that emissions in 2030 will be higher than in 2010, which in practice completely eliminates the possibility of limiting warming to below 2°C. That is why COP27 is expected to be the one for the implementation of effective emission reduction policies.

COP27 is also expected to make important progress in the fight against tropical deforestation. Terrestrial ecosystems are essential in the fight against climate change, absorbing 25% of greenhouse gas emissions. But we must be careful that the possible establishment of the Forests and Climate Leaders’ Partnership (FCLP) does not end up being a propaganda or greenwashing strategy that allows large companies to continue broadcasting while hiding behind uncontrolled and unmonitored tree plantations, which often generate more environmental damage than benefits and undermine the interests of indigenous communities.

Will the war in Ukraine affect the outcomes of COP27?

The war in Ukraine has highlighted Europe’s vulnerability generated by dependence on fossil fuels and the need to rethink its energy model. After decades of asking developing countries to grow through renewable energies, the energy crisis in Europe forces it to be exemplary and to bet decisively on non-fossil energies. Otherwise, its credibility and its opportunity to influence the global energy transition will be undermined.

It is also foreseeable that the US will try to strengthen its technological leadership by promoting ambitious initiatives and gain the ground lost during the previous administration.

More complex is how a possible new geopolitical status quo resulting from this war can affect emissions. In addition to the traditional influence of Western countries, China has a growing presence in Africa, which may encourage the arrival of significant agreements to strengthen its position on the continent.

Is international cooperation really possible?

COPs are usually lived with a certain optimism and enthusiasm before their start and with disappointment after their closure. Replacing the main source of energy – fossil fuels – and the current model of short-term economic growth is extremely complex. The result will not be known until the end of the 12 hours followed by the meeting of the final day.

Whatever that end result, the scientific community must play a key role, rigorously documenting the impacts of climate change, future risks for different regions and integrating the social perspective with the ecological one. Different studies show examples of possible consensus solutions to avoid the overexploitation of shared resources and, ultimately, tragedy

Source: Ecoavant