Who’s Who at the Carbon World Cup in Egypt

The most developed countries, which are in turn the maximum emitters of CO₂, exhibit their decarbonization achievements in the final stretch of the climate change summit

Comparative data on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by country require certain nuances. For example, the biggest polluter since 2006 is notably China, responsible for more than a quarter of total global emissions today. But does that mean China is primarily responsible for the climate crisis?

Beyond the current minute and result, the country that accounts for the largest volume of accumulated GHG emissions (since 1850) is, by far, the United States. The North American country almost doubles China in the world list of illustrious pollutants. A fact that is not always referred to and that is aptly highlighted in the latest Carbon Brief report on historical emissions.

In any case, clarified this relevant aspect linked to climate justice, the ranking of current carbon emissions would be headed (according to Climate Trade) by four countries that together account for more than half of the world total.

And here yes: the outstanding leader in the general classification is China: the Asian giant alone generates 32% of global GHG emissions. Far from that position would come: the United States (13%), India (7%) and the European Union (6.4%). Behind, and to complete the top ten, would be: Russia, with 4.5% of the world total, Japan (3%), Iran (2%), South Korea (1.7%), Indonesia (1.6%) and Saudi Arabia (1.5%).

But how are emissions evolving among the top classifieds? Let’s take a look at the trends shown by the leading peloton:

China

Although China increased its GHG emissions by almost 6% between 2019 and 2021, according to the recent Energy & Climate report presented on Monday, the figures are being reversed, with a record fall of 8% in the second quarter of 2022, largely due to the cut in emissions associated with cement as a result of the notable slowdown in the real estate market.

The same study underlines that China will install 165 GW of renewable energy this year: 25% more than the previous year. Beijing’s new forecast is to exceed 870 GW between 2021 and 2025, which would be in line with its commitment to reach peak emissions in 2030 and start reducing its carbon footprint from that year to achieve neutrality in 2060.

However, continuing with the tradition of playing all sides, the Chinese government has just announced that this year it will increase coal production by more than three hundred million tons to guarantee electricity supply.

United States

Over the past two years, the US has reduced its GHG emissions by 6.7%. However, some studies, such as the one prepared by the Global Carbon Project (GCP), indicate that this year US emissions will experience an increase of 1.5% due to the sharp increase in gas consumption (+4.7%) and oil (+2%) in the current geopolitical situation.

Despite this negative data, it is fair to highlight that the North American country ranks second after China in the deployment of renewable energies, and the plans to boost photovoltaic and wind energy suggest that it will be able to meet the objective that 85% of its energy is of renewable origin in 2030. To achieve this, President Biden has managed to get Congress to approve an extraordinary budget of 500,000 million dollars.

European Union

Europe has become one of the main drivers of climate action globally. Between 2019 and 2021, and despite the notable trend differences between its member states, the EU + United Kingdom managed to reduce its GHG emissions by almost 4%. And despite the disruption to the energy sector following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has led to a shift in priorities to secure supplies for this winter, the EU is likely to cut GHG emissions by around one percent again in 2022.

In fact, the energy saving and boosting renewable energy measures included in the REPowerEU package for adaptation to the new energy scenario could contribute to extending the reduction targets beyond 55% by 2030. A goal that would further expand European climate action and could be announced at the end of COP27.

India

In contrast to the EU, India is the red lantern of global climate action. The authorities of the second most populous country in the world (a very short distance from China) constantly allude to the historical accumulation of emissions that we pointed out at the beginning to claim their right to continue emitting GHGs until equaling the level of development of the United States, which according to experts could exceed in total emissions if the trends between the two countries continue to evolve in the opposite direction.

However, after years of lagging behind the rest of the world, the deployment of renewables in India, particularly solar PV, is accelerating rapidly in 2022 thanks to heavy investments from green funds from the US and the EU. However, and in contrast to this figure, India’s investments in fossil energy projects abroad are also growing.

Expert projections, such as those contained in the GCP report, indicate that India’s GHG emissions will increase by 6% this year: the largest increase globally, due in large part to the increase in domestic consumption of fossil fuels, especially oil (+10%).

Far from Paris

All that said, the UN Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window, launched during COP27, shows that national commitments updated since the last summit held last year in Glasgow, UK, make a negligible difference in the reduction of emissions planned for 2030 and that we are still far from the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to a 1.5°C increase.

Looking at the trends shown by countries and policies currently in place, the average temperature of the planet is likely to increase by 2.8°C by the end of the century. For the authors of this report, only an urgent and profound transformation of the entire current production model could lead to the enormous cuts necessary to limit GHG emissions and contain this increase in temperature. This rigorous work provides detailed information on the changes that should be activated to achieve this transformation in all sectors: from electricity generation and supply, to transport, building, waste management, agri-food models and the financial market, among others.

By the way, and as a reminder: three of the five main world GHG emitters, China, India and Russia, will not participate in the final stretch of the negotiations that will take place in the coming days in Sharm-El Sheikh, basically because none of the three countries attend this summit.

Source: The Confidential