2021: Good news on Climate Change worldwide. Josep Garriga, December 2020

Today we can say that multilateralism will once again play an important role in the process of combating climate change within the framework of the United Nations.

From January next year, the 2015 Paris Agreement will be launched and the 1997 Kyoto Protocol will become history.

It should be remembered, however, that currently we have not yet finalized the entire “rule book” necessary for the Paris Agreement to be fully operational, but during the next year, if Covid19 allows it and the negotiations in Glasgow make it possible, it is very likely that it will be so.

During 2020, it has not been possible to hold face-to-face negotiations to complete the preparation of the full implementation of the Paris Agreement, which has meant the non-meeting of the Subsidiary Bodies in Bonn last spring as was normal in recent years.

Despite this, the technical work and preliminary negotiation for COP 26 has occurred telematically, this has meant that 2020 has not been a lost year in the fight against climate change.

An example of this has been the so-called “U.N.CLIMATE CHANGE DIALOGUES” during the days November 29 to December 4, where it was about advancing and completing the work planned for the year 2020.

Virtually, under the organization of the United Nations and the coordination of the representatives of the Presidencies of COP 25 and the future COP 26, together with the Presidents of the Subsidiary Bodies for Implementation (SBI) and scientific and technological advice (SBSTA), 800 people have participated telematically in a series of meetings (more than 60) technical, informative and informal preparations for COP 26.

The experience has had very positive aspects and others less desirable.

Among the positives, we can point out the democratization of the dialogue process, given that the virtual framework has favored the presence of many people and institutions that in person would not have had real possibilities to attend.

Among the least desirable parts have been the issue of conference schedules, which have meant difficulties of live monitoring in many parts of the planet due to the different time zones and the low quality of connection in some places of the same.

The technical and informative aspects of the dialogue have been extensively exposed, but those of the real negotiation in the most controversial aspects have not been possible, since all the delegations of the States have repeated their well-known positions without the slightest approximation of the initial positions to more flexible ones being able to emerge from the dialogue.

The need for face-to-face negotiations has been confirmed, so that it is possible to bring together non-coincident positions on key issues.

In my opinion, the key issues that are not yet agreed, to be approved at COP 26, are: (a) Article 6 of the Paris Agreement on market and non-market mechanisms; (b) common time limits for declarations of nationally determined contributions; (c) global climate finance, d) transparency in reporting and (e) that rights under the Kyoto Protocol that could not be used will be made.

Many other issues of the negotiation are also important, including the loss and damage mechanisms agreed at COP 19 in Warsaw and response measures, but these and many others can only be important if, at the same time, the key issues have an approach that means, for all States, elements appropriate to their interests, in a weighted manner and taking into account all the pros and cons that affect them.

If within the dialogue it has been possible to define, and it is not little, different and concrete options on the key and important issues, as an example of this is the issue of common time frames, where there are already three options established: (a) five years b) 10 years (c) 5 or 10 years at the option of each State.

This last option is that of China, Saudi Arabia and others, but as you can see, it is not very operational, since the common term can vary at the will of each State and this would not be unique or comparable in time.

The most in line with the spirit of the Paris Agreement and the most operational would be the 5-year one, which is the one defended by the European Union and other states.

In general, the virtual dialogue has been positive although in some of its parts it has not been in an open mode for all participants.

Some key issues have been discussed in closed circuits informally, as is also the case in face-to-face COPs, it is a methodology that allows States to present their positions in forums that do not commit them and it is not until the last minute of the negotiations and in the form of a final package when they do not object, agreements can be reached on issues that would otherwise be very difficult to achieve.

Today we can expect that COP 26 will allow positive agreements to be reached since it has been found that there is a certain predisposition that in Glasgow an effective and satisfactory agreement can be reached.

The theme of increased ambition has always been present in virtual dialogues although, more often than not, in a very abstract way.

Many other things have happened during this year that can give us some hope on issues related to the fight against climate change. The American elections last November have meant a change in administration at the federal level. With President Trump, the U.S. they left the Paris Agreement but with President Biden they can soon be back inside, influencing and collaborating in effective policies to fight Climate Change worldwide.

Without the U.S. contribution. especially on climate finance issues, the effective deployment of the Paris Agreement would be very complicated.

He has recently been appointed “special envoy” of the U.S. President. on climate change issues the experienced Mr. John Kerry, who in Madrid, last year 2019, at COP 25 participated in a high-level event to reinforce climate action and later, in the corridors, in a talk with a group of mostly American young people, which I was fortunate to be able to attend, said that the United States. they should not abandon the Paris Agreement as it represented a global agreement on one issue, climate change of vital importance to all humanity. In Glasgow, he will surely have a more pronounced role and there will be many more of us who will listen to him defend multilateralism, again, in the global fight against climate change.

He was the one who, on January 16, 2016, with his granddaughter Isabelle between his knees signed his country’s entry into the Paris Agreement, having previously negotiated with China bilateral agreements that facilitated the global agreement in Paris in December 2015.

It is important to remember that Senator John Kerry was a pioneer in the legal fight against climate change, also within the US. in May 2010 he presented to the Senate a law, the “Heinz-Lieberman climate change bill” that sought to modify the American energy system to make it more in line with the policies of the fight against climate change, but the correlation of forces in the Senate of those days did not give it the necessary definitive support.

It would be very positive if the current U.S. Senate, made up of 50 Republican senators and 46 Democrats and 2 independents who vote with the Democrats, were completed with two more senators from the Democratic Party to be able to establish, in case of a tie, a decisive vote of the Vice President of the United States. improve policies on climate change issues.

The second round of the Senate Elections in the State of Georgia will take place on January 5, 2021 and we cannot rule out this possibility that although it would be desirable, it is still unlikely in a state of Republican tradition.

Other important actors have been the positions of the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Mr. Antonio Guterres who has declared at a conference at Columbia University in N.Y. on December 2 as a summary that “the planet is broken” and has called for an effective agreement to fight climate change and the protection of nature, for the first case proposes a global coalition of countries that commit to make a common path to have a neutral planet in emissions for this century, the virtual meeting of the main political leaders worldwide on December 12 at the United Nations went in this direction.

The European Union has made this last year a political and legislative effort to achieve at the same time the economic and social reconversion after Covid 19, the reinforcement of the fight against climate change and the promotion of the digitalization of the economy of the European Union, the GREEN DEAL program and the ordinary financing of the European Union and the extraordinary of the NEXT GENERATION program are elements that can reinforce these three objectives.

Finally, not before with a strong discussion among some of its members, the EU has been able to announce its commitment to reduce 55% of its emissions by 2030 based on those of 1990

The economic, social and environmental policies of the Spanish government go in this direction with “unequivocal and solid” steps as President Sánchez explained virtually before the United Nations on December 12 at the “Climate Ambition Summit 2020”.

The approval of a Spanish climate change law by the Spanish Parliament is a very necessary condition to be able to have legislation in accordance with the objectives of the Paris Agreement and the GREEN DEAL of the European Union.

Last but not least are the statements at the United Nations Headquarters of the President of China, Xi Linping in which he formally committed to having for China a neutral emissions target by 2060, it is a bit far from what would be desirable but it is the first time that China has committed, to a reduction target in a specific temporary space.

In conclusion, it would be desirable and absolutely necessary, that next year we have a social, economic and environmental reconstruction of all humanity after the COVID 19 pandemic and an effective start of the implementation of the mechanisms of the Paris Agreement, when we manage to have its development completed at COP 26 in Glasgow and I believe that with the right precautions all this will be possible during the year 2021.

Josep Garriga Sala

Economist, expert in climate change and advisor to the Business and Climate Foundation
December-15-2020