Guterres: Either we change course, or the Climate Conference is doomed to fail

The UN Secretary-General on Monday conveyed an urgent message to a small group of heads of state and government ahead of the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) next November: if we do not jointly change course “there is a high risk that it will fail”.

António Guterres’ resounding statement comes after the publication last Friday of a report by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change that includes Nationally Determined Contributions, the plans in which countries commit to concrete measures to reduce the impact of global warming.

According to the report, these contributions are far from the goal of containing the rise in the Earth’s average temperature by a maximum increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius, as agreed by the international community in the Paris Agreement.

“Based on current commitments from member states, the world is on a catastrophic path towards 2.7 degrees of warming.

Science tells us that exceeding 1.5 degrees would be a disaster,” he warned during his speech at an informal climate roundtable convened by the head of the UN and the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson.

Guterres stressed that, to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees, a reduction in polluting emissions of 45% by 2030 is necessary, which serves to achieve carbon neutrality by mid-century.

“Instead, the commitments made by countries to date imply a 16% increase in greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 compared to 2010 levels. This means that unless we change course collectively, there is a high risk that COP26 will fail,” he explained.

Three fronts open before the Conference

Faced with this dangerous possibility, he asked the leaders attending the meeting “to do what is necessary” so that the Climate Change Conference, which will take place in the Scottish city of Glasgow, “is a success and marks a turning point”.

To achieve this, Guterres pointed out three basic axes:

• maintain the target of not exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius in the Paris Agreement,
• meet the commitment made by developed countries to contribute $100 billion annually to climate action in developing countries
• increase investments for adaptation to at least 50% of total public climate finance

At the same time and in terms of mitigation, he said that the goal of limiting 1.5 degrees Celsius is still possible according to the data handled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but that “a drastic improvement” of the Nationally Determined Contributions of most countries is necessary.

“I understand the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. Developed countries must take the lead. But it is also essential that several emerging economies go one step further and contribute effectively to reducing emissions. We especially need the leadership of the G20 countries,” he stressed and recalled that these nations account for 80% of greenhouse gas emissions.

Total war on coal

Guterres once again reiterated his call on governments to withdraw fossil fuel subsidies and phase out coal use. As an example, he stressed that if all the planned coal-fired power plants start operating, the temperature limits above 2 degrees Celsius will be exceeded.

“The Paris goals will fade away. OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries must end the use of coal by 2030. Developing countries must do the same in 2040,” he said.

He described as “failure” the financing that developed countries must provide to developing nations during 2019 and 2020 and urged the first group of nations to reduce this gap.

It also called for the support of international financial institutions and the mobilization of the private sector through financial and technological assistance.

Source: United Nations